Tag Archives: Featured

On Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Central Banker Crisis Handbook it states very clearly, “do not make it worse.” It’s something like the Hippocratic oath where monetary authorities must first assess what their actions might do to an already fragile system. It’s why they take great pains to try and maintain composure, appearing calm and orderly while conflagration rages all around. The last thing you want to do is confirm the...

SPX, Quo Vadis? Considering the Crash Potential In view of the fact that the stock market action has gotten a bit out of hand again this week, we are providing a brief update of charts we have discussed in these pages over the past few weeks (see e.g. “The Flight to Fantasy”). We are doing this mainly because the probability that a low probability event will actually happen has increased somewhat in recent days....

Today’s first batch of euro area March business surveys looks worrying at first sight. The drop in the euro area composite PMI index, from 57.1 to 55.3 in March (consensus: 56.8), was the second one in a row and the largest monthly decline in six years. New orders fell to a 14-month low. The correction in business sentiment was predominantly driven by the manufacturing sector, which could reflect broader concerns of a...

Swiss Federal Railways CEO Andreas Meyer presented the company's annual figures on Tuesday at a press conference in Bern. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge The Swiss Federal Railway’s net profit increased by CHF18 million ($19 million) to CHF399 million ($418 million) last year despite posting a loss in its troubled freight division. The company confirmed a previous decision to cut 800 freight jobs but plans to...

Salt, formerly called Orange, is already established in the Swiss mobile market. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Mobile telephone operator Salt has announced that it will begin offering landline services in Switzerland, in a move set to intensify competition amongst current providers. Salt, which is already an established player in the mobile market, announced on Tuesdayexternal link that it would be proposing...

– Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday – Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range – Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018 – Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair  – Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products...

Let’s imagine a model in which the marketers of data distribute some of their immense profits to the users who created and thus “own” the data being sold for a premium. It’s not exactly news that Facebook, Google and other “free” services reap billions of dollars in profits by selling data mined/collected from their millions of users. As we know, If you’re not paying for it, you’re not the customer; you’re the product...

Much of recent ECB dovish rhetoric has been building around the (not-sonew) idea that potential growth might be higher than previously thought, implying a larger output gap and lower inflationary pressure, all else equal. The argument is both market-friendly and politically welcome – what we are seeing is the early effects of those painful structural reforms implemented during the crisis. Inflation would be low for good...

- Click to enlarge Trade tensions have risen. No doubt about it, but to consider this a trade war is premature.  We should not pretend that this is the first time that the US adopted protectionist measures that ensnarled are military allies. We have been to this dance before. Countries will respond with some symbolic retaliation on a small number of goods that make a little more than a rounding error in bilateral...

US metal industry trade disputes could disrupt the Swiss economy indirectly (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Ongoing global trade disputes involving the United States are casting a potential shadow over Swiss economic growth, along with other international events, such as the Italian elections and Brexit. However, the Swiss economy is forecast to expand 2.4% this year and 2% in 2019. The Swiss State Secretariat...