Tag Archives: Featured

EM ended last week on a soft note, due in large part to the attempted coup in Turkey.  Weakness in the lira spilled over into wider EM weakness in thin Friday afternoon market conditions.  The situation in Turkey has calmed, and so EM may gain some limited traction this week.  However, that calm will likely be very fragile and so we retain a defensive posture with regards to EM. Turkey Central Bank of Turkey meets...

  Speculator’s Market LOS ANGELES – Stocks were up again… Whoa! Hold on just a cotton-picking minute. Honest investors are getting out of the stock market. There have been net withdrawals of $80 billion from U.S. equity funds so far this year. Who’s buying? This is a speculator’s market. And the No. 1 gambler is playing with an infinite amount of chips. We’re talking about central banks – who create money on demand....

  The Transition   “The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.” Ron Paul The intricate relationship between energy markets and our global financial system, can be...

Summary: Key event in Europe is not on many calendars–it is a ruling by the European Court of Justice. UK government and Tory Party stabilizing, leaving the Labour Party in disarray. US economy appears to have accelerated into the end of Q2. BOJ’s meeting at the end of the month. Four large dramas being played out among the major high income countries. The drama in the eurozone moves center stage in the...

The combination of a robust US jobs report, speculation of bolder action by Japan, the possibility that the ECB drops the capital key to overcome the ostensible shortage of some core bonds (e.g. German bunds), and the anticipation of easier BOE policy appears to have generated a change in sentiment among speculators in the currency futures market. A pattern was clear in the speculative position adjustments in the...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc continues to under-perform the dollar index in the month after Brexit.   Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. The dollar makes up 40% of the SNB portfolio and of...

Status quo, as our generation know it, established in 1945 has plodded along ever since. It is true that it have had near death experiences several times, especially in August 1971 when the world almost lost faith in the global reserve currency and in 2008 when the fractional reserve Ponzi nearly consumed itself. While the recent Brexit vote seem to be just another near death experience we believe it says something...

Wie Recherchen des liberalen Online-Magazins die Zürcherin ergaben, konnte ein Gewaltopfer nicht sofort eine Anzeige gegen den mutmasslichen Täter erstatten. Die Stadtpolizei verwies auf einen Termin. Eine in der Stadt Zürich lebende ältere Dame wurde Opfer einer Gewalttat und...

  Meaningless Noise BALTIMORE – The Dow rose 250 points on Friday… putting it back near its all-time high. A “blow-out jobs report” was said to be the inspiration. Oh my… so many dots.. so little time. Friday’s jobs report said that 278,000 Americans found work in June – up from 11,000 in May.  This was considered such good news that investors rushed to buy stocks. At least, that was the line taken by the mainstream...

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets.  This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line). Both time series are indexed as to June 15, but they were at nearly identical levels as the UK voted.  The developed market equities fell more...