Tag Archives: Featured

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The gathering of central planners at Jackson Hole was widely expected to bring some clarity regarding the Fed’s policy intentions. This is of course a ridiculous assumption, since these people have not the foggiest idea what they are doing or what they are going to do next. Like all central planners, they are forever groping in the dark.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]One of my reading projects over the past year is to learn more about empires:how they are established, why they endure and why they crumble. To this end, I've recently read seven books on a wide variety of empires. The literature on empires is vast, so this is only a tiny slice of the available books. Nonetheless I think these 7 titles offer a fairly comprehensive spectrum:

  Quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board was held on July 19. A pdf transcript of the discussion can be downloaded via the link below. We were once again joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. When Will the Helicopter Take Off? This time the debate revolved around the threat of “helicopter money”, which has become a lot...

  The War on Moles OUZILLY, France – The farther you get from the big city, or the international press… the closer you get to reality. The myth and claptrap disappears as distance shortens. Imagination gives way to fact. Gone is global warming, for instance. Instead, you find – as we did when we drove to Nova Scotia for a summer holiday in the 1990s – that it will be “75 degrees in Halifax again today… No relief in...

It’s tough to pay for an Olympics when 95% of your supposed “wealth” has vanished. In the modern era (1896-present), the Olympics have only been cancelled in wartime: 1916 (World War I), 1940 and 1944 (World War II). But world war is not the only circumstance that could derail the Olympics; a global crisis in energy, finance or geopolitics could send the risks and costs of the Olympics beyond the reach of most...

  Mining Stocks, Gold Prices and Commodity Price Trends Gold has gone up >400% over the last 16 years. Ironically, it is hard to find a gold mining equity exhibiting similar performance. In retrospect, if one invested in gold, one not only made much better returns, one also took a relatively insignificant risk in comparison to owning equities—equities can go to zero while it is hard for a commodity to fall much...

Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance (See more posts for Switzerland Trade Balance) Click to enlarge. Source Investing.com FX Rates The US dollar is mostly little changed against the major, as befits a summer session. There are two exceptions. The first is the New Zealand dollar. Comments by the central bank’s governor played down the need for urgent monetary action and suggested that the bottom of cycle may be...

Exports and Imports YoY Development In July 2016, Swiss exports declined due to two working days less. Adjusted for this difference, exports were up 7.9% YoY (in real terms: + 2.4%) and imports 11.8% YoY (in real terms: + 8.2%). Exports and Imports MoM Development  Compared with June 2016, seasonally adjusted exports rose by 3.5% (in real terms: + 5.5%). Thus the positive trend that began in mid-2015 continues....

On a new website, Aleksander Berentsen rejects the Swiss Vollgeld initiative. As an alternative, he suggests the Swiss National Bank should offer transaction accounts for everybody, in line with proposals I have made earlier (see here (2016), here (2015), here (2015)). In the Handelszeitung (here and here), Simon Schmid reports....

Summary: Dollar weakness does not line up with increased perceived risk of Fed hiking rates. Frequently the rate differentials lead spot movement. Some now turning divergence on its head, claiming too expensive to hedge dollar-investments so liquidation. TIC data, though, shows central banks not private investors, were the featured sellers in June, the most recent month that data exists. The US dollar has...