Tag Archives: Featured

Which blocs/nations are most likely to face banking/liquidity crises in the next year? Hating the U.S. dollar offers the same rewards as hating a dominant sports team: it feels righteous to root for the underdogs, but it’s generally unwise to let that enthusiasm become the basis of one’s bets. Personally, I favor the emergence of non-state reserve currencies, for example, blockchain crypto-currencies or...

Clowns in the Coliseum DUBLIN – The presidential debate began long after our bedtime, here in Ireland. So we got up this morning, rubbed our eyes, and watched the highlights. “Lowlights” is perhaps a better way to describe it: two rascals making public spectacles of themselves, arguing about things that mostly don’t matter… posing, posturing, pretending. If we had our druthers, both candidates would lose. That is...

The truth is the rich are getting richer and everyone else is losing ground as inflation chews through stagnant incomes. This headline is risibly wrong on a number of counts. Most importantly, a notch up in median household income doesn’t mean “average Americans Just Got a Huge Income Boost”: It means that half of households in 2015 earned more than $56,516 and half earned less than $56,516. It does not mean every...

For decades, Switzerland had a reputation for bank secrecy that made it the most sought after tax haven for billionaires from around the globe.  But, after more than 80 years of secrecy, a series of bilateral agreements with countries around the world, including America’s Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), have forced the private-banking industry in Switzerland to embrace an entirely new era of transparency...

John Hussman on Recent Developments We always look forward to John Hussman’s weekly missive on the markets. Some people say that he is a “permabear”, but we don’t think that is a fair characterization. He is rightly wary of the stock market’s historically extremely high valuation and the loose monetary policy driving the surge in asset prices. As he reminds his readers in this week’s market comment, he altered his...

Preposterous Lies Elizabeth received a strange letter from her congressman. “We have to be on guard against our enemies… and not be afraid to name them.” A brave, forthright stand? But wait, he didn’t name the enemies. That left us wondering: Who are our enemies? Muslims, Jews, Arabs… Russians, Iranians, North Koreans… capitalists, the Deep State, Yankees… liberals, conservatives? And what does he mean by “our”? A...

Germany The start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank’s travails and dollar funding pressures, which may or may not be related. The end of the week features the US monthly jobs report. Despite being a noisy, high frequency time series subject to significant revisions, this report like none other can drive expectations of Fed policy. Deutsche Bank is faced with two challenges: its business and several...

Natalie Obiko Pearson and Katia Dmitrieva, writing for Bloomberg, look at the UBS 2016 Global Real Estate Bubble Index report. While Switzerland’s two main cities, Zurich and Geneva, are not described as having “Bubble risk” they are in the next category: “Overvalued”. Vancouver, London and Stockholm rank as the cities most at risk of a housing bubble after a surge in prices in the past five years, according to a UBS...

Deep in the Swiss Alps, next to an old airstrip suitable for landing Gulfstream and Falcon jets, is a vast bunker that holds what may be one of the world’s largest stashes of gold. The entrance, protected by a guard in a bulletproof vest, is a small metal door set into a granite mountain face at the end of a narrow country lane. Behind two farther doors sits a 3.5-ton metal portal that opens only after a code is...

Summary The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies in Q3.  The Norwegian krone was the best performer, gaining 4.4% against the greenback.  It was helped by higher oil prices and a shift away from an easing bias by the central bank.  The relatively high interest rates offered by Australia and New Zealand underpinned their currencies, which gained 2.7% and 2.0% respectively. The dollar rose against three...