Tag Archives: Featured

Summary: Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows. There are powerful moves underway in the capital...

Swiss Franc Currency Index At least against the Swiss Franc index, the dollar index could further advance last week. We had observed SNB interventions in the previous week that kept the euro mostly above 1.07. Investors were hedging against the Trump reflation trade and potential inflation that comes with it. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 25(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ). Source: FT.com -...

Myths and Legends “Myths and legends die hard in America,” remarked Hunter S. Thompson in The Great Shark Hunt, nearly 40-years ago. Uncompromising independence, rugged individualism, and unbounded personal freedom were once ideals essential to the American character. According to popular American folklore, they still are. We have some reservations. In practice, the principles that gave rise to the great myths and...

When Money Dies In part-I of the dispatch we talked about what happened during the first two days after Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi banned Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes, comprising of 88% of the monetary value of cash in circulation. In part-II, we talked about the scenes, chaos, desperation, and massive loss of productive capacity that this ban had led to over the next few days. Indian prime minister...

Taking Off Like a Rocket There are actually two problems with corporate debt. One is that there is too much of it… the other is that a lot of it appears to be going sour. As a brief report at Marketwatch last week (widely ignored as far as we are aware) informs us: “Businesses racked up debt in the January-to-March period at the fastest pace in three quarters, according to data released Thursday. Business debt grew at...

So where will mobile capital flow in an environment of rising socio-political risk, a multi-year USD uptrend and a dearth of safe, liquid markets? On October 3rd I asked Is the U.S. Dollar Set to Soar? It seems the answer was yes. Here’s the weekly chart of the USD I posted on October 3rd: US Dollar Index - Cash SettleUS Dollar Index - Cash Settle - Click to enlarge And here’s the current weekly chart of the...

  Confidence Gets a Boost Payrolls figures are rising. Stocks rose to new records. As we laid out recently, a better jobs picture should lead the Fed to raise rates. This should cause canny investors to dump stocks. Canny investors at work (an old, but good one…) Cartoon via Pension Pulse - Click to enlarge But the stock market paid no attention. It follows logic of its own. Headlines told us that last...

Combine identity politics with political correctness, and the New Nobility/Oligarchy can laugh their way to the bank while their pawn-serfs fight over how many politically correct angels can dance on the head of a pin. I have long held that our economy is, stripped of propaganda, nothing but an updated version of feudalism, i.e. neofeudal: a vast class of precarious laborers (i.e. precariats–precarious proletariats)...

Credentials are increasingly in over-supply; problem-solving skills are scarce. How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and “unownable” and therefore almost free. Financialization as a substitute for creating value has run its course. The crony-capitalist answer is always the same, of...

Summary Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term. South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage. Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative. Turkey’s central bank surprised markets with a 50 bp hike in its benchmark repo rate to 8.0%. Political risk in Brazil is rising as President Temer’s top aide was...