Tag Archives: Featured

Summary: The Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for FY2017/18. South Korean President Moon suspended the installation of the remaining components of the THAAD missile shield. S&P cut Qatar one notch to AA-. Turkey looks likely to get caught up in yet another regional conflict. Brazil’s structural reform agenda has been delayed as President Temer remains on the ropes. Stock Markets In the EM equity...

The 11th Annual In Gold We Trust Report This year’s Incrementum In Gold We Trust report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek appears about one month earlier than usual (we already mentioned in our most recent gold update that it would become available soon). As always, the report is extremely comprehensive, discussing everything from fundamentals pertaining to gold, to technical analysis to statistical...

The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of the official ledger. So many people may have exited the labor force in May that the...

One Ear to the Ground, One Eye to the Future Treasury yields are attempting to say something.  But what it is exactly is open to interpretation.  What’s more, only the most curious care to ponder it. Like Southern California’s obligatory June Gloom, what Treasury yields may appear to be foreshadowing can be somewhat misleading. Behold, the risk-free tide… - Click to enlarge Are investors anticipating deflation or...

Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.02% to 1.0851 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates What looked like a savvy move in late April has turned into a nightmare.  Collectively, voters have denied the governing Conservative party a parliamentary majority. The uncertainty today does not lie yesterday with the known unknown, but with the shape of the next...

Swiss pensions have three parts. The first is a standard payment based on the number of years you have paid social security taxes (AVS / AHV). The second (2nd pillar) is based on a personal pot of money built up from compulsory salary deductions. And the third is a personal pot derived from optional tax deductible savings, known as a 3rd pillar. All three are designed to come together to provide enough income in...

Almost 10,000 passengers and around 67,000 tonnes of freight pass through the 57-kilometre-long Gotthard Base Tunnel each day. Opened a year ago on June 1, the Gotthard’s success is putting the structure to the test. “We have kept our promise. The railway services are operating safely, reliably and punctually,” said Philippe Gauderon, Head of Infrastructure at Swiss Federal Railways, presenting the balance sheet for...

Negative interest rates and the populist uprising that spurred the UK to vote for Brexit and Americans to elect Trump has helped reignite a rush into physical safe haven assets like gold and silver, which however has led to a shortage of safe venues where to store the precious metals (unlike bitcoin, gold actually has a physical dimension). And now companies that operate storage facilities for precious metals and other...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the interest rate differential between the US and Germany. The euro-dollar exchange rate often seems sensitive to the rate differential. The white line is the two-year differential and the yellow line is the 10-year differential. There are a few observations to share. First, the 10-year premium is often greater than the two-year premium. It has been five years since this...

Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what pattern that fits. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher in May than April, 54.9 versus 54.8, but...