Tag Archives: Featured

Virtue-signaling doesn’t signal virtue–it signals decline and collapse. There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two are of course intimately connected: once the morals of the ruling Elites degrade, the status quo seeks to mask its self-serving rot behind high-minded “virtue-signaling” appeals to...

Ross Perot famously declared the “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential campaign. The debate over NAFTA did not end with George H. W. Bush’s defeat, as it simmered in one form or another for much of the 1990’s. Curiously, however, it seemed almost perfectly absent during the 2000’s, the very decade in which Perot’s prophecy came true. Americans didn’t notice because there was a bubble afoot. That bubble,...

(originally published on Seeking Alpha at end of October 2016) The current article will take a closer look to the incredible rise of the Swiss National Bank stock and suggest why taking a short position could be the right trade at this level. The Swiss Central Bank: Mandate and Monetary Policy According to the Swiss Federal Constitution (Art. 99) the Swiss Central Bank is an independent institution with the mandate to...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The late recovery in US equities before the weekend did little good for Asian markets. Nearly all the Asian equity markets moved lower, led by the 1.0% decline in Japan’s Topix.  It was the third successive loss for the Topix, which is the long losing streak of the year so far. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

Neuchâtel, 27.02.2017 (FSO) – In the 4th quarter 2016, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period grew by 0.1%. The Swiss economy counted 3,800 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+7.8%). The other indicators also showed positive growth. These...

Debunking a Lie Don Watkins of the Ayn Rand Institute wrote an article, The Myth of Banking Deregulation, to debunk a lie. The lie is that bank regulation is good. That it helped stabilize the economy in the 1930’s. And that deregulation at the end of the century destabilized the economy and caused the crisis of 2008. As of early 2015, Dodd-Frank had imposed altogether 27,670 new restrictions, more than all other laws...

In response to a FOIA request the US Mint has finally released reports drafted from 1993 through 2008 related to the physical audits of the US official gold reserves. However, the documents released are incomplete and reveal the audit procedures have not been executed proficiently. Moreover, because the Mint could not honor its promises in full the costs ($3,144.96 US dollars) of the FOIA request have been refunded....

Headlines Week February 27, 2017 We were arguing in the last weeks, that the EUR/CHF is trending towards parity. There are three reasons: Continuing SNB interventions Strengthening Swiss local demand Speculators increase their dollar shorts against Euro and reduce them against CHF. FX week until February 27 The EUR/CHF fell to new lows. The average rate in the week was 1.0648. The SNB is apparently ready to let the...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

United States There is a broad consensus around the macroeconomic picture. The headwinds slowing the US economy in H1 16 have eased, and above trend growth in H2 16 appears to be carrying into 2017. Q4 16 GDP is expected to be revised to 2.1% up from 1.8%. Many economists appear to accept that a good part, though not all, of the decline in the estimated trend growth in the US, is a function of demographic...