Tag Archives: Featured

What if bitcoin is a reflection of trust in the future value of fiat currencies? I am struck by the mainstream confidence that bitcoin is a fraud/fad that will soon collapse, while central bank fiat currencies are presumed to be rock-solid and without risk. Those with supreme confidence in fiat currencies might want to look at a chart of Venezuela’s fiat currency, which has declined from 10 to the US dollar in 2012 to...

It’s been a week of quite righteous focus on collateral. The 4-week bill equivalent yield closes it at just 114 bps, with only three days left before the RRP “floor” is moved up by the FOMC to 125 bps.  That’s too much premium in price, though we know why given what FRBNY reported for repo fails last week.  With all that, there’s really nothing much to say about what’s below. OK, there is, but I’ll save that for next...

As weird as it may seem at first, the primary economic problem right now is that the global economy looks like it is growing again. There is no doubt that it continues on an upturn, but the mere fact that whatever economic statistic has a positive sign in front of it ends up being classified as some variant of strong. That’s how this works in mainstream analysis, this absence of any sort of gradation where if it’s...

An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event...

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels...

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels...

With the approval of the Senate tax bill in the early hours of Saturday 2 December, a key step has been taken toward tax cuts. The next chapter in the process is to reconcile this version with the House of Representatives’ tax bill, most likely in a ‘conference committee ’ from which a final version will emerge. Various lobbies have been taken by surprise by the speed with which tax legislation has moved forward in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.28% to 1.168 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The cross-currency basis swap continues to lurch in the dollar’s direction, especially against the euro, and yet the dollar is not drawing much support from it. The increasing cost reflects pressure for the year-end and does not appear to...

Imported mineral water has been increasingly popular in Switzerland over the last 25 years. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge A government study shows that imports of food products have grown by 80% — three times faster than the Swiss population — between 1990 and 2016. In that time, the quantity of imported food consumed per inhabitant went from 344 kilograms to 490 kg. The figures, published Tuesday by the...

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price – FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small...