Tag Archives: Featured

Summary: Correlation between the change in the US-German two-year differential and euro remains robust. The German two-year yield has jumped in recent weeks but looks poised to slip back lower. US two-year yield has eased but is knocking on 1.30%, an important level. There is one variable that explains the euro movement better than any other single variable we have found. The US-Germany two-year interest...

If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it. In an interview with Charles Schwab, the former Fed Chairman says not to worry: Dr. Bernanke noted that corporate earnings have risen at the same...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The Japanese yen is the main exception.  The greenback is rising against the yen for the fourth session and the sixth of the past seven.  The dollar’s gains against the yen coincide with the 10-12 bp recovery...

© Miriam Doerr | Dreamstime.com The Swiss government’s company tax reform plans have been reborn after the last plan met with defeat in a popular vote on 12 February 2017. The new plan, dubbed “Tax proposal 17”, aims to avoid issues that bedeviled the last project. Last time many were concerned by the potential financial impact of lower company tax rates, and the proposal was rejected by 59.1% of voters. This time the...

In a newsletter published in 1970, economist Murray Rothbard wrote, “It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” This is an oft-quoted platitude within circles of libertarian...

Economics is a pretty simple framework of understanding, at least in the small “e” sense. The big problem with Economics, capital “E”, is that the study is dedicated to other things beyond the economy. In the 21st century, it has become almost exclusive to those extraneous errands. It has morphed into a discipline dedicated to statistical regression of what relates to what, and the mathematical equations assigned to...

  Honest Profession GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow rose 174 points on Thursday. And Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said we’d have a new tax system by the end of the year. Animal spirits were restless. But which animals? Dumb oxes? Or wily foxes? Probably both. But what caught our attention were the central bankers strutting across the yard and crowing with such numbskull cackles that even barnyard animals would be...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall or they remain steady for years. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so...

Swiss Franc Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, March 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Retail Sales, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Many financial centers are closed for May. Japanese markets were open today, but will be closed for three sessions beginning Wednesday for the Golden Week celebrations. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The yen is the weakest of the majors, off about 0.3% as the...