Tag Archives: Featured

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week, with political optimism driving the big winners ZAR and CLP.  We remain cautious, as the Fed has signaled its intent to continue tightening in 2018.  Stock Markets Emerging Markets, December 18 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Brazil Brazil reports October monthly GDP proxy Monday, which is expected to rise 2.8% y/y vs. 1.3% in September. Brazil then reports...

In Der Bund, Adrian Sulc comments on the Swiss National Bank’s perfectionism. Keine andere Schweizer Organisation kommuniziert so professionell wie die SNB, keine andere Organisation kann so gut dichthalten. Perfectionism is costly. Der Personalbestand ist in den letzten fünf Jahren um 18 Prozent auf 795 Vollzeitstellen gestiegen. … Die durchschnittlichen Lohnkosten pro Mitarbeiter betragen mittlerweile 155 000 Franken...

The prospects that the Republican-controlled legislative branch would find a compromise to tax cuts were enhanced when a few senators appeared to capitulate without much to show for it may have helped lift US stocks and dollar ahead of the weekend. Each chamber must now approve the reconciliation measure, which does not look particularly like either the House or Senate bills, though the regressive thrust was...

Swiss direct investment abroad In 2016, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 71 billion abroad. Swiss direct investment abroad thus fell short of the CHF 90 billion recorded in 2015, due primarily to lower investment activity by finance and holding companies. All other industry categories combined actually exceeded the level of the previous year with investment abroad  of CHF 62 billion (2015: CHF 46...

Bitcoin is increasingly being accepted into the mainstream, but many remain sceptical (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Axel Weber, the board chairman of big bank UBS, has warned of a possible Bitcoin currency crash. With increasing numbers of small investors jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, it is time for regulators to intervene, he says. Bitcoin has surged from $1,000 (CHF9,900) at the start of the...

The November employment report showed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest -rate hikes (although it is still very likely to hike 25bps on 13 December)....

The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone. Euro area real GDP growth forecasts will likely be revised higher for the fifth...

A recent OECD study, which looks at retirement, shows the relatively large amount spent on pensioners in Switzerland. © Marian Vejcik | Dreamstime - Click to enlarge Switzerland consumes 11% of its GDP on retirees, compared to 9% across OECD nations. Despite this high spending, the risk of poverty is higher in Switzerland than across the OECD. According to the organisation, 19% of those over 64 in Switzerland are at...

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts – Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800...

All of which brings us to the “crazy” idea of backing fiat currencies with cryptocurrencies, an idea I first floated back in 2013, long before the current crypto-craze emerged. Exhibit One: here’s your typical central bank, creating trillions of units of currency every year, backed by nothing but trust in the authority of the government, created at the whim of a handful of people in a room and distributed to their...