Flash PMI suggests GDP growth may cool slightly in the third quarter, but dynamics of the euro area economy remain strong and broadly stable.Markit’s composite flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for the euro area remained broadly stable at 55.8 in August, slightly above consensus expectations (55.5). By sector, the manufacturing PMI increased to 57.4, from 56.6 in July, offsetting a decline in the services PMI (-0.5 points to 54.9).The euro area composite PMI is now consistent with GDP...
Read More »Euro area business confidence remains strong
Flash PMI surveys indicate continuation of a “solid and broad” recovery. We expect ECB to move cautiously toward a more neutral policy stance.The euro area May PMI indices remained consistent with Mario Draghi’s assessment of the ongoing recovery as “solid and broad”. The composite flash PMI remained stable at 56.8 in May, against expectations of a small decline. This apparent stability masked further improvement in the largest member states as business confidence outperformed in the French...
Read More »PMI survey signals sustained euro area expansion in Q1
Although business surveys outpaced expectations and there are signs of rising price pressures, we continue to believe the ECB will not shift its monetary stance in the near term.The euro area composite flash PMI surged to 56.0 in February, the highest reading since April 2011. The main boost came from a surge in the services index due to strong data in Germany and France.The euro area average composite PMI is now consistent with a GDP growth rate of about 0.6% q-o-q in Q1, above our...
Read More »Signs of higher growth and inflation in the euro area
Surveys that show activity remains buoyant in the euro area mean growth and inflation could be higher than forecast, thus complicating the ECB’s task.Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) for November, compiled by Markit, delivered upside surprises across most countries and sectors in the euro area.Business confidence remained very strong in Germany, and improved markedly in France and peripheral countries. The euro area composite PMI rose to 54.1, pointing to real quarter-over-quarter...
Read More »Euro area flash PMIs show resilient activity
Yesterday’s flash purchasing managers index (PMI) surveys showed again a rather resilient picture for the euro area after the UK vote to leave the EU. The euro area composite ‘flash’ PMI index posted a marginal increase from 53.2 in July to 53.3 in August, slightly above consensus expectations (53.1) and reaching a seven month high. The sector breakdown showed that the services sector index increased from 52.9 in July to 53.1 in August, above consensus expectations (52.8). By contrast, the...
Read More »Business activity resilient in France and Germany, but marked downturn in the UK
The flash PMI for the euro area was better than expected in July, although some sub-indexes pointed ahead to a deceleration in the rate of expansion. PMI data indicate a contraction of activity in the UK. Today’s flash PMI surveys for the euro area were more resilient than expected. The euro area composite PMI index eased only marginally in July, from 53.1 to 52.9, according to Markit’s flash estimates. However, some forward-looking indicators point to weaker developments ahead. In the...
Read More »Purchasing Manager Indices signal modest downside risks to near-term euro growth
Flash estimates for euro area composite PMI eased slightly in May, pointing to a slowdown in economic growth after a strong first quarter Read full report here Following a strong performance in Q1, when real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q (2.1% in annualised terms), the euro area economy was expected to slow down a gear to more sustainable levels of growth. The flash purchasing manager indices (PMI) released on May 23 may signal just that, although mixed news at the national level—with...
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