Tag Archives: euro area growth

Industrial production rebounded in May. But a closer look shows that the improvement was narrowly spread, and euro area manufacturing faces numerous challenges ahead. After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations. Production of consumer goods surged in May. Output of capital goods and...

Industrial production rebounded in May. But a closer look shows that the improvement was narrowly spread, and euro area manufacturing faces numerous challenges ahead.After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations. Production of consumer goods surged in May. Output of capital goods and energy also increased. However, output of intermediate goods slipped.While the...

While our forecasts remain unchanged for now, external drags on growth prospects for the euro area look set to persist for longer than we had previously expected. A potential improvement in euro area growth in H2 2019 on the back of a revival in the global economy is in jeopardy due to the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China. The euro area is not directly affected, but its indirect exposure to this...

While our forecasts remain unchanged for now, external drags on growth prospects for the euro area look set to persist for longer than we had previously expected.A potential improvement in euro area growth in H2 2019 on the back of a revival in the global economy is in jeopardy due to the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China. The euro area is not directly affected, but its indirect exposure to this dispute is not insignificant. Potentially weaker domestic demand in the US,...

The general improvement in hard data holds out the possibility of a positive surprise when preliminary GDP figures are announced next week.Next week will be a busy one for Europe, with lots of data releases: European Commission business survey (April); advance GDP (Q1); M3 money supply (March); HICP flash estimate of inflation (April); and final manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs, April). The advance Q1 GDP will be especially closely watched. No euro area GDP breakdown will be...

German economy should rebound this quarter, but external demand poses a downside risk.Real GDP in Germany fell 0.2% q-o-q in Q3, compared with a 0.5% rise in Q2. This was below consensus and marks the first quarterly contraction in GDP since Q1 2015. The headline number looks horrible, but the market was prepared, as high-frequency data were already pointing in that direction.As usual, the Federal Statistical Office will release more detailed information on the GDP expenditure components on...

While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk. According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast. This was the weakest quarterly growth figure for the euro area since Q2 2014 and...

While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk.According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast. This was the weakest quarterly growth figure for the euro area since Q2 2014 and marks the widest divergence vis-à-vis the US since 2015.Advanced estimates...

We are sticking to our forecast of 2.0% euro area GDP growth for 2018, but with risks tilted to the downside. Investment is an important driver of the business cycle and a key determinant of potential growth. In the euro area, total investment makes up about 20% of GDP. Construction, machinery and equipment (including weapons systems), intellectual property rights and agricultural products account, respectively, for...

We are sticking to our forecast of 2.0% euro area GDP growth for 2018, but with risks tilted to the downside.Investment is an important driver of the business cycle and a key determinant of potential growth. In the euro area, total investment makes up about 20% of GDP. Construction, machinery and equipment (including weapons systems), intellectual property rights and agricultural products account, respectively, for 48%, 32%, 18% and 2% of total investment. Machinery and equipment spending...