Tag Archives: Crude Oil

The rebound in commodity prices is not difficult to understand, perhaps even sympathize with. With everything so depressed early last year, if it turned out to be no big deal in the end then there was a killing to be made. That’s what markets are supposed to do, entice those with liquidity to buy when there is blood in the streets. And if those speculators turn out to be wrong, then we are all much the wiser for their...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time. What exactly is this “some time” remains open, but is at the latest in early 2018. Many, like Thomas Flury, currency strategist at UBS, think that the...

The average annual change in the WTI benchmark price was in April about 25%. That was still a sizable increase year-over-year, and just marginally less than March’s average of 33%. For calculated inflation rates, it represents the last of the base effects that have to this point made it appear as if economic improvement was possibly serious. CPI Changes On Energy, January 2016 - May 2017 - Click to enlarge Combined...

Swiss Franc The Swiss franc was the weakest of the majors. Its 1.7% fall was the largest in six months. Over the past month, the euro has rallied strongly against the Swiss franc. The 3.2% rally has seen the euro reach heights not see since last September. Thanks to the win of the pro-euro Macro, FX traders went long Euro and short CHF. The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question,...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 06(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years interval, the Swiss...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 29(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.fx.xom - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. The dollar makes up 33% of the...

Swiss Franc Currency Index While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07. The euro is still the main component of the Swiss Franc index, but the dollar is recovering thanks to rising pharmacy exports to the U.S. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22(see more posts on Swiss...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and his proxies were quick to take credit but...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but – compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen – it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions, that reflect the demand for CHF safe-haven. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 14(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3...

Summary: US yields have trended lower as oil prices have trended higher. The correlation between the 10-year breakeven and oil has also weakened considerably. Technicals readings are getting stretched, but no compelling sign of a top. Rising oil prices traditionally boost inflation expectations and US interest rates. The May futures contract for light sweet crude oil is up today for the sixth consecutive...