Tag Archives: bonds

Did Jerome Powell blink last Friday? It was just before the market open Friday and interest rates were jumping higher, as they had all week. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.33%, another 11 basis points higher than the previous close and 32 basis points higher than the previous week’s close. Then, “the article” hit the front page of the WSJ: Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes By Nick Timiraos The article led with this quote:...

The Federal Reserve seems confused about its role in inflation and unemployment. Alhambra’s Steve Brennan and Joe Calhoun discuss it. [embedded content] [embedded content] Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Markets were rather volatile last week. That’s a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rear view mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan, goofy as it is. Stocks were down slightly Monday and Tuesday fearing the worst and...

The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, no matter how many people have to be put on the unemployment line, because that’s the only way to kill this inflation, to...

For decades a Buy and Hold strategy was a staple of financial advice. But should it be? Alhambra CEO separates myth and reality. [embedded content] [embedded content] Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Are investors at the point of maximum pessimism? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about a horrible 3rd quarter, sentiment, and where investors can look right now. [embedded content] [embedded content] Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Goodbye and good riddance to the third quarter of 2022. That was one of the wildest 3 months I’ve experienced in my 40 years of trading and investing. The quarter started off great with the S&P 500 rising 14% from July 1 to August 16 but ended with a 17% swan dive into the end of the quarter. And we closed on the low of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 2.97% to 4% just a few days before the end of the quarter. The 3-7 year Treasury index – our...

Is the economy contracting? Alhambra’s Steve Brennan poses that question to CEO Joe Calhoun. [embedded content] [embedded content] Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy. A report that wholesale inventories rose 0.6% cannot be turned into market moving news no matter how hard the newsletter sellers try. Jobless claims fell 8,000? Yawn. Exports rose $500 million? In a...

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892 It is hard to determine sometimes what causes markets to move as they do. Take last Friday’s stock market selloff. The widely cited “reason”...