Tag Archives: Articles

We continue to think that the US economy is in better shape than most appreciate, and that underpins our strong dollar call Tensions are likely to remain high after reports emerged last week that the US will look into limiting capital flows into China US September jobs data Friday will be the data highlight of the week; there is a heavy slate of Fed speakers this week UK, eurozone, and Japan are expected to report weak data this week RBA meets Tuesday and is expected...

Uncle Sam hat and money. American hat. Hat independence day - Click to enlarge Political uncertainty is likely to persist in the US; the big unknown is whether this will impact the US economy US core PCE reading will be of particular interest and is expected to rise 1.8% y/y; Quarles (voter) and Harker (non-voter) speak Dovish BOE comments are weighing on sterling; France reported weak CPI and consumer spending data Tokyo September CPI was lower than expected; FTSE...

Focused On Strategy - Click to enlarge The dollar continues to benefit despite US political uncertainty President Trump claimed to be getting “closer and closer” to a trade deal with China; we are very skeptical There is a lot of US data to be reported and a heavy slate of Fed speakers today ECB board member Lautenschlaeger has resigned; sterling continues to soften as Brexit optimism fades Netanyahu has been tasked with forming the next Israeli government;...

Markets have moved into risk-off mode from a confluence of events emanating from the US Speaker of the House Pelosi formally launched a formal impeachment inquiry; DOJ inserted itself into Trump’s fight with New York state Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday was noteworthy for its belligerence RBNZ and BOT kept rates steady, as expected; Czech is expected to follow suit The dollar is broadly firmer against the majors as risk-off impulses return to...

We think the Fed has signaled that the bar to another cut is high.  Unless the US data weakens considerably, we see rates on hold for now and this means the liquidity story for EM has worsened.  Elsewhere, US-China trade talks appear to be going nowhere.  With no end in sight to the trade war, we remain negative on EM. Korea reports trade data for the first 20 days of September Monday.  Between the US-China trade war and Korea-Japan tensions over exports of strategic...

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp Brazil cut rates 50 bp to 5.5%; Indonesia cut rates 25 bp to 5.25%; Taiwan kept rates steady at 1.375%; SARB is expected to remain...

Oil prices have spiked after the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities.  Will it impact the Fed tomorrow?  No.  We compare the current (but still unfolding) situation to past oil shocks from the 1970s and discuss the policy responses taken. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continues to reverberate.  The drone strike removed about 5% of global supplies from the market, leading Brent oil to spike to $72 per barrel Monday before falling...

The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continue to reverberate across global markets The currencies of the oil producing nations are likely to outperform near-term US rates continue to adjust ahead of the FOMC UK Prime Minister Johnson is in Luxembourg today to meet with EC President Juncker China reported weak August IP and retail sales . The dollar is mixed against the majors as markets continue to digest the attack on Saudi oil facilities.  Yen and Loonie are...

US-China relations appear to be thawing Trading was volatile after the ECB decision; we are still dollar bulls EM has benefitted from the shift in the global backdrop this week The US data highlight is August retail sales Vietnam cut rates 25 bp to 6.0%; Turkey reported July current account and IP The dollar is mostly softer against the majors ahead of the US retail sales data. Sterling and Swissie are outperforming, while Kiwi and Loonie are underperforming. EM...

Turkey central bank meets September 12 and is expected to cut rates 275 bp.  With Erdogan talking about single digit rates and inflation, it’s clear that rates are headed significantly lower.  At some point soon, we think the risk/reward for investing in Turkey will send investors fleeing for the exits.POLITICAL OUTLOOK President Erdogan sacked central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya on July 6, ostensibly for not cutting rates quickly enough.  In early August, several...