Sunday , February 5 2023
Home / Tag Archives: Alhambra Research

Tag Archives: Alhambra Research

Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months. Real disposable income is up 0.8% in the last six months but was down...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: The Consensus Will Be Wrong

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...

Read More »

Great News! Consumer Sentiment Is Awful!

I don’t know how many times I’ve seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks. The only problem is that sentiment today tells you only how people view things today – and investing is about the future. If...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Currency Illusion

When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately, I’m not sure...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday. The same could be said of bonds which also had a good week, with the aggregate index up 2.3%. The stock market rally probably says...

Read More »

The Cleanest Dirty Shirt

The Cleanest Dirty Shirt It’s easy to overestimate the problems the United States faces while underestimating its strengths. The challenges are certainly significant. Politics have seldom been so divisive. The government is running an annual deficit of over a trillion dollars, with a total debt many times that. Inflation has spiked. The Fed has been hiking interest rates at a pace that could imperil the economy. There is enormous wealth disparity. Economic growth has...

Read More »

SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money Series – Dawn Of A New Era

With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, and interest rates. While 1970s levels of inflation seem unlikely, several trends are converging to keep upward pressure on...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Did Powell Just Blink?

Did Jerome Powell blink last Friday? It was just before the market open Friday and interest rates were jumping higher, as they had all week. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.33%, another 11 basis points higher than the previous close and 32 basis points higher than the previous week’s close. Then, “the article” hit the front page of the WSJ: Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes By Nick Timiraos The article led with this quote:...

Read More »

Market Currents: Fed Confusion

The Federal Reserve seems confused about its role in inflation and unemployment. Alhambra’s Steve Brennan and Joe Calhoun discuss it. [embedded content] [embedded content] Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

Markets were rather volatile last week. That’s a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rear view mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan, goofy as it is. Stocks were down slightly Monday and Tuesday fearing the worst and...

Read More »