SNB & CHF

The dollar rose against all the major currencies over the past week.  The divergence meme we have emphasized has continued to unfold.  The ECB eased policy at the start of the month.  Less than 48 hours after the Fed hiked rates, the BOJ tweaked its asset purchase program to sustain it.  Holiday-thin markets make for more treacherous conditions than usual.   The news stream lightens, and participation will fall off until January 4.     The key question for many short-term participants...

1) Argentina eliminated capital controls and allowed the peso to float2) Argentina also eliminated export taxes on agricultural goods that include beef, wheat, and corn3) Fitch joined S&P in cutting Brazil to sub-investment grade BB+ with a negative outlook4) Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that impeachment proceedings can move forward5) Banco de Mexico hiked rates for the first time since 20086) Under strong pressure from the financial markets, South African President Zuma reinstated...

The Greek crisis that dominated the European discussion in the first half of the year was barely ending when attention turned to the refugee problem.   While it often seemed that all of Europe was united against Greece, the refugee problem is significantly more divisive, though southern Europe, especially Italy and Greece are the front lines.   In the financial crisis, we emphasized the linkage between solvency and sovereignty.  The less solvent a country was, the more sovereignty was...

More than 100 refugees from Syria have started new lives in Switzerland. They are part of a programme run by the UN refugee agency to resettle particularly vulnerable Syrians who fled the conflict in their homeland. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) The Swiss government decided to take in 500 Syrians two years ago as part of the resettlement programme. This summer, the latest group of Syrian refugees arrived. They have been put up in a former boarding school in the village of Thal in eastern Switzerland,...

The Bank of Japan was the fourth major central bank to meet this week.  Sweden and Norway kept policy unchanged.  The Fed hiked.  The BOJ was not expected to do anything.  Governor Kuroda surprised the market with largely operational tweaks to what Japan calls Qualitative and Quantitative Easing.  Initially, and perhaps with the help of headline reading algos, the yen sold off and Japanese shares rallied.  As cooler, or perhaps human, heads prevailed, the markets reversed.   There are...

We will not spend much time discussing what the FOMC did as tons of ink have been spilled on that already. We will rather spend more time on what the FOMC did not do. A short recap will suffice; the FOMC did raise the interest rate band by 25 basis points to 0.25 – 0.5 per cent from the seven yearlong band of 0 – 0.25 per cent. No surprise there as this move was well communicated weeks in advance. As discussed in Unintended Consequences of Liftoff the recent move to secure a floor in the...

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St had on returning guest, author and popular economic blogger, Charles Hugh Smith http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html. Charles came on to discuss his new book, A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All: The Future Belongs to Work That Is Meaningful which can be purchased on Amazon http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0178MQI1M/. Charles' other books he's authored are listed here: http://www.oftwominds.com/CHS-books.html...

For five years, governance reforms at the IMF have been stymied by the refusal of the US Congress to accept a new and higher quota (money) to the IMF.  This has frustrated efforts to integrate the developing countries, especially the large ones, like China, better into the global economy.  It may have also helped spur China to develop parallel organizations, like  the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The omnibus spending and tax bill that looks likely to be approved by Congress and...

Asia extended the US dollar's post-Fed gains while Europe has seemed content to consolidate the move, perhaps waiting for US leadership.  Much of the commentary about the Fed's action have noted that the FOMC statement used the word "gradual" not once but twice evidence of its dovishness.     The Fed's dot plots continued to signal that the majority of officials see a 1.375% Fed funds rate at the end of 2016 as appropriate.   The Fed may call this gradual, but the December 2016 Fed funds...

Whistle-blowers like Hervé Falciani have helped relegate banking secrecy to the history books. What consequences has this paradigm shift had on the financial centre of Geneva? (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Falciani will be tried in his absence on Monday in the Swiss Criminal Court on charges stemming from stealing client data from his former employer, the Geneva branch of HSBC. It was a turning point for HSBC and other Geneva banks when the public became aware of the case in 2009 and the scale of tax...