SNB & CHF

Speculators in the futures market were not particularly active in Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 5.  There was only one gross position adjustment which we regard as significant (defined as a 10k contract change), and that was in the yen.   Yen bulls extended their gross long position by 13.3k contract to new record of 98.1k contracts.   However, the bears are beginning to get itchy and have sold into the yen gains for the second consecutive week.  The gross short yen...

Although there is no convincing technical evidence that dollar's retreat in Q1 is over, we suspect it is nearly complete.  We will be especially sensitive to reversal patterns, divergences with technical indicators, and other signs that the move is exhausted. The fundamental economic driver of our medium term constructive outlook for the US dollar, the divergence of monetary policy between the major central banks, relative health of the financial sector, and absorption of capacity,...

  The War on Cash is on! If you are used to making visits to your bank to make your credit card payments, you may find this no longer an option in the future. Some banks are no longer accepting (or limiting their acceptance) of cash deposits. The war on cash forges on. Paper money, which is indeed more or less worthless, is slowly being taken out of circulation and being replaced by digital currency. This shift presents of course the same fundamental problem as paper money itself:...

  Myths That Just Won’t Die Gold just had its best quarter in 30 years. Not surprisingly, gold bears are coming out of the woodwork en masse in the mainstream media and the analyst community (see e.g. this recent write-up by Mish on the Goldman Sachs analyst who has been screaming “short gold” since right before it started rocketing higher in early February). Below we will discuss a specific assertion that tends to be repeated over and over again. Gold had a very strong quarter, but...

Bank Indonesia signaled it may pause its easing cycle Vietnam undertook a massive cabinet shuffle MSCI is reviewing Nigeria’s standing in its equity indices due to the impact of ongoing FX controls Russia’s central bank tilted a bit more dovish South Africa’s parliament voted down President Zuma’s impeachment proposal by a vote of 233-143 The impeachment process in Brazil moved forward another step Brazil’s Prosecutor General submitted a report to the Supreme Court saying that Lula’s...

In the first quarter, there was some speculation that currency pegs either in the Middle East or Hong Kong were going to give way.  We argued that the pegs would in fact hold, and hold they have.  In fact, pressure on the Saudi and Hong Kong pegs have dissipated.  Since the end of last month, Denmark's peg against the euro (+/- 1% band) has come under pressure.   Indeed, the pressure is the most acute since January 2015.  When the Swiss abandoned the cap on the franc then, speculative...

The surging yen has been the main feature in the foreign exchange market in recent days, but its advancing streak has been stopped with today's setback.  The greenback traded briefly dipped below JPY107.70 in North America yesterday but has not been below JPY!08 today.  It is near JPY109 as NY dealers return to their posts.  Japanese officials may have ratcheted up their rhetoric a notch, but the ultimately it simply seems the yen buying dried up.  Either the demand at the beginning of...

08.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1603-50) Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2016 Consumer prices increase by 0.3% Neuchâtel, 08.04.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in March 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.9% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Download this press release (pdf, 129 KB) Bericht CD Bund...

Bill Bonner is a business professor at the University of Regina. He has done extensive research on P3 projects. Video created by Laura Beamish.

Bill Bonner is a business professor at the University of Regina. He has done extensive research on P3 projects. Video created by Laura Beamish.