SNB & CHF

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. How to Earn Money that Will Soon be Worthless Real Quick There is a often-promoted plan to grow your wealth. Here’s the background. The dollar is going to be worthless. Soon! The reason is because [their peeps in high places tell them / the Chinese / end of the petrodollar / historical fiat currencies / Rothschild Jekyll...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After being shellacked last week, the US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the major currencies, but the euro and New Zealand dollar. To be sure, it is not that a new development has emerged to take investors’ minds from intensifying political uncertainty in the US. Rather it seems to be simply...

A majority of commentators in Swiss newspapers are pleased with voters’ decision to withdraw from nuclear power and promote renewable energies, even if the government’s energy strategy leaves many open questions. A big win for the Swiss energy minister - Click to enlarge The Basler Zeitung sees a “change of direction with numerous open questions” following Sunday’s vote (58% of voters) in favour of Energy...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: US drama distracts from the difficult and ambitious economic program. European and Japanese developments have been constructive. Bank of Canada is the only G7 central bank that meets, and it is not expected to shift from its cautious stance. The no-drama Obama has given way to “The Donald” who appears to be providing more melodrama than an Emmy-winning soap opera. To be sure it is not just him. Hope...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a firm note, shrugging off political risk that consumed markets earlier in the week. With US rates remaining low, the dollar remains under pressure against the majors, and so EM FX is likely to benefit also. Yet we warn investors not to jump back into EM countries that are inherently riskier, such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey. We continue to favor Asia in the current...

Summary: Markel said the euro was too weak, so it rallied. This is not a new position for Germany. Merkel may now tack to the left since the AfD appears to have been dispatched. Look for Weidmann to begin moderating views or becoming less antagonistic. The interruption of last week’s steady negative news stream from the US saw the dollar consolidate its recent losses.  German Chancellor Merkel’s comments...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time. What exactly is this “some time” remains open, but is at the latest in early 2018. Many, like Thomas Flury, currency strategist at UBS, think that the...

© Alys | Dreamstime.com Tribune de Genève. After more than two years of a highly overvalued franc, relative to the euro, the currency should ease in the near term reckons Thomas Flury, senior currency strategist at UBS. He expects a euro to be worth 1.14 francs in 6 months and 1.16 within a year. Emmanuel Macron’s victory and Marine Le Pen’s defeat in the second round of France’s presidential election support this...