SNB & CHF

Summary: Market has downgraded chances of a September hike from low to lower, but the chances of a December hike are higher than the day after the June hike. ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. A small change in the risk assessment is likely. The US and Europe have been more disruptive to the global capital markets this year than China. The focus shifts in the week ahead from Yellen’s...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month. The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency...

Bitcoin and other cryptos have fallen sharply over the past month in a shakeout that saw some of the early longs decide to take their winnings and walk away. But a 20% drop from the all-time highs hasn’t done much to temper wealthy investors interest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative investments potentially worthy of diversification. And with the Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust still trading at a...

 La vache, source de pollution à cause du méthane contenu dans ses pets! En revanche, les blocs de béton construits sur  les près,dans lesquels elles broutaient, ne polluent pas… Une offense à notre intelligence… L’Espagne, potager de l’Europe! Le slogan est joli, mais il y a plusieurs mais! - Click to enlarge Il faut savoir que les industriels de l’agriculture exploitent ce pays de toutes les manières possibles...

Miners at the south portal of the Bözberg Tunnel, canton Aargau, in January. The tunnel is part of the strategy of shifting cargo from road to rail between Basel and Chiasso via the new Gotthard Base Tunnel - Click to enlarge The Swiss are not only the European champions in travelling by train, but they also invest the most in their country’s rail network. Last year, €378 (CHF416) per inhabitant was spent on rail...

 In the same way as durable goods orders and US imports, wholesale sales in May 2017 were up somewhat unadjusted but down for the third straight month according the seasonally-adjusted series. As with those other two, the difference is one of timing. In other words, combining the two sets, seasonal and not, we are left to interpret a possible recent slowing in activity. There are gains year-over-year to be sure, but it...

To the naked eye, it represents progress. China has still an enormous rural population doing subsistence level farming. As the nation grows economically, such a way of life is an inherent drag, an anchor on aggregate efficiency Chinese officials would rather not put up with. Moving a quarter of a billion people into cities in an historically condensed time period calls for radical thinking, and radical doing. In one...

Summary Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may face trial on corruption charges. Turkey will reportedly pay $2.5 bln for a Russian missile defense system. Nigeria said it was willing to cap its oil production to support OPEC efforts to cut global supply. Former Brazilian President Lula was sentenced to nine and half years in prison on corruption charges. S&P downgraded Chile one notch to A+ with a stable...

Summary Downside momentum is fading and technicals are showing a bullish divergence. The Dollar Index has not met the minimum corrective retracement target, meaning that it is premature to talk about bear market. We identify two pre-conditions to enter trade. The Dollar Index set the year’s high on January 3 a little above 103.20.  Today it made a marginal new lows for the year at 95.464.  The previous low, set at...

Scientists feared the H5N1 virus could jump from birds to humans and trigger a pandemic - Click to enlarge Ten years ago Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis carried out clinical trials for a bird flu vaccine on homeless people in Poland. One man, who says they were told they were being tested for a conventional flu vaccine, is now suing the Basel-based company. When the H5N1 virus broke outexternal link among birds in...