There was little doubt in the market’s collective mind that the Federal Reserve, which hiked rates in July, would stand pat today. It did not disappoint. The statement itself was almost identical. Growth was said to be “strong” instead of “solid,” for example, a nuance to be lost on most observers. It recognized that the unemployment rate stabilized after falling. Most notable is what is not included. The June minutes...
Read More »TARGET-2 Revisited
Capital Flight vs. The Effect of QE Mish recently discussed the ever increasing imbalances of the euro zone’s TARGET-2 payment system again in response to a few articles which played down their significance. He followed this up with a nice plug for us by posting a comment we made on the subject. Here is a chart of the most recent data on TARGET-2 available from the ECB; we included the four largest balances, namely...
Read More »The 21st Century Misery Index: Labor’s Share of the Economy and Real-World Inflation
Isn’t it obvious that those at the top of the wealth-power pyramid don’t want us to know how much ground we’ve lost while they’ve gorged on immense gains? In the late 1970s and early 1980s, an era of stagflation, the Misery Index was the unemployment rate plus inflation, both of which were running hot. Now those numbers are at 50-year lows: both the unemployment rate and inflation are about as low as they can go,...
Read More »IT made compulsory for upper secondary pupils
This upper secondary school in Glarus already has IT lessons Computer science has become obligatory at Swiss upper secondary schools, as the country seeks to plug its information technology (IT) skills gap. These schools (Gymnasium/lyceé/liceo), whose pupils typically go on to university, have until the school year 2022/3 to introduce the compulsory lessons, under a regulation change that came into force on August 1....
Read More »FX Daily, August 02: BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% to 1.1548 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Bank of England meeting concludes a run of major central bank meetings over the past fortnight. The BOE is widely expected to join the Bank of Canada in raising rates. The Federal Reserve and the ECB were content to do and say...
Read More »Spotlight on the HUI and XAU Gold Stock Indexes
Probably the two best known gold mining stock indexes in the world’s financial markets are the HUI and the XAU. HUI is the ticker symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. XAU is the ticker symbol for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Both of these monikers make an appearance on many gold related websites and many general financial market websites as well, so its worth knowing briefly what these indexes are and...
Read More »Swiss Consumer Sentiment Falls Almost back to its Average
Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has almost dropped back to its long-term average. While consumers still expect a positive economic development, they are less optimis-tic than in recent quarters. Consumers’ expectations regarding their own budget also remain subdued, while they adjusted their assessment of inflation upwards. Corre-spondingly, the likelihood of consumers making major purchases remains low. Switzerland...
Read More »Swiss Retail Sales, June: +1.1 percent Nominal and +0.3 percent Real
Neuchâtel, 2 August 2018 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in June 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.3% in June 2018 compared with the...
Read More »Global Asset Allocation Update
The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10 year Treasury yield punching through 3% again this morning. That is an indication that growth and/or inflation expectations have risen...
Read More »Beaver attack!
Wild animals like bears, wolves and beavers are protected by law and cannot, as a rule, be hunted. But now Parliament wants to amend the Hunting Act and loosen the restrictions, especially if the animals concerned cause damage. Swiss public television, SRF saw how animals and people can get in each other's way. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on...
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SNB & CHF
