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SNB & CHF

Mark Thornton Explains the Yield Curve, “Soft Landings,” and Today’s Bubble Economy

[In recent months, Senior Fellow Mark Thornton has been covering today's economy in detail in his Minor Issues podcast, so we asked him some questions about where the economy is headed now.] Mises Institute: You’ve become notable for the idea of the “skyscraper curse,” which is an illustration of how an inflationary economy can lead to more and more gargantuan construction projects. The projects keep getting bigger (and taller) until the bust finally kicks in. That...

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Spending More Taxpayer Money on Foreign Policy Boondoggles Has Solved Nothing

Whether you’re a conservative or libertarian, the notion of government shutdowns is no longer an alien concept considering that Washington managed to add a whopping $1 trillion to the gross national debt in a matter of three months—a large percentage coming from interest expenses alone. Another record for our national debt has been broken again, with $275 billion added onto the national debt in a single day. How we solve this issue is a question that will remain...

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Reconciliation after the Colombian civil war

Two perpetrators and two victims of the Colombian civil war present the painstakingly negotiated peace process together in Switzerland – for the first time before the international community. They want to show that reconciliation is possible after decades of war. Danilo Conta, an italian businessman residing in Colombia, was kidnapped by the FARC in 1996. He was accompanied by Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri, the last commander of the FARC, who signed the Peace treaty with the...

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How To Prevent the Boom-Bust Business Cycle

I recently wrote about how the Federal Reserve has made the economy of the United States much worse than it would have been without their bureaucratic central planning over the past century. While the Fed’s disastrous track record is widely acknowledged even by Fed apologists, they point out that life was not perfect before the Fed either. They correctly note that there were business cycles before the creation of the Fed. So, even though inflation has been much...

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Sharp Fall in US Yields ahead of Large Supply

Overview: The market continues to monitor developments in Israel and the Middle East. The economic calendar is light today and the market is showing a strong appetite for risk. Except for China and South Korea, large bourses in the Asia Pacific rallied. Japan's indices jumped more than 2% and Australia by 1% to lead the region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up 1.5% near midday, which, if sustained would be the largest in nearly a month. US index futures are firmer. After...

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War in Israel Spurs Flight to Dollars, Yen and Gold, While Driving up the Price of Oil

Overview: There are three main developments. First, the market is digesting the implication of the US employment data, where the optics were strong (336k increase in nonfarm payrolls compared with 170k median forecast in Bloomberg and Dow Jones surveys) but some details were disappointing (like the third consecutive decline in full-time posts, seasonally adjusted). Second, Chinese mainland market re-opened after a six-day holiday). Chinese stocks slipped and...

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Week Ahead: King Dollar Stalls

The US reports September CPI on October 12 and the first decline in three months in the year-over-year rate is expected. However, the price action itself may overshadow not only the CPI but other high-frequency data in the week ahead. US grew more than twice the number of jobs in September as economists expected. US interest rates and the dollar jumped initially, and stocks were dumped. And then they reversed. Many narratives will be spun to explain the price...

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US Employment Data to Determine Whether the Greenback’s Rally since mid-July is Over…Maybe

Overview: One key issue for market participants is if the dollar's pullback is the beginning of something important or is largely position adjusting ahead of today's US jobs report. We suspect that the dollar's rally that began in mid-July is over, though a strong employment report that boosts the chances of a Fed hike before year-end could quickly demonstrate the folly of making claims ahead of what is still one of the most important reports in the monthly cycle of...

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