SNB & CHF

Countless actors – professional and amateur – have played William Tell over the past 200 years. Yet the man millions of people around the world knew as the Swiss hero was actually British. At the invitation of swissinfo.ch, in 2004 Conrad Phillips paid his first visit to Switzerland. (Michele Andina, swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international...

Investors still have not found solid footing this year.  Equity markets have continued to sink, even though China's equities advanced.  Bond markets are mostly firmer, with the US 10-year yield seemingly being drawn back toward 2.0%.  Oil prices are little changed, after Brent slipped to marginal new lows.   There is much talk about the Iranian sanctions being lifted as early as Monday. The US dollar itself is mixed.  The yuan weakened about 0.25%.  The renewed pressure so new widening...

Sterling fell 4.25% from the high on December 28 to yesterday.  It has been confined to yesterday's range today.   After finishing below the lower Bollinger Band yesterday, it has moved back into the band today.  The Bank of England meets tomorrow.  It is way to early to seriously look for a change in policy.  At most, MPC member McCafferty may abandon his formal call (dissent) for an immediate rate hike.    He has done this before.  We suspect if the hawk does rejoin the majority, it has...

Since the initial spike higher when the BOJ provided some operational tweaks to its asset purchase program on December 18, the dollar has fallen 5.6% against the yen through Tuesday's low near JPY116.70.  We had warned that the break of JPY120 would spur a move to JPY118, and the move below JPY118 targeted the August low near JPY116.20.  While the euro often carves out a bottom, the dollar's lows against the yen are frequently characterized by spikes.  That was the case, for example in...

Many of the capital markets are enjoying reversals today.  Equity markets are mostly higher. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up more than 1%. Several key commodities, like oil and copper, are firmer.  Bond markets, outside the US, are firmer, with the Japan's 10-year yield slipping to new record lows slightly below 20 bp.   The dollar is mixed, as the dollar-bloc currencies firm, as are most of the freely traded emerging market currencies, with the beleaguered South African rand...

The weak growth, large output gap, low return on capital, and a host of other economic malaise are widely recognized.  There seem to be two main schools.   One is associated with Reinhart and Rogoff.    They argue that "this time is not different" and that much of disappointment with economic performances are what should be expected given the end of a historic credit cycle and debt crisis.  The other is associated with Summers, who resurrected Alvin Hanson's 1938 secular stagnation...

A subdued Chinese session, with the yuan, little changed and local equities securing minor gains, let market participants look elsewhere for directional cues.   The new lows in oil, near $30 a barrel, and the bankruptcy filing of Glencore's US subsidiary Sherwin Alumina seemed to weigh on the dollar-bloc currencies.   However, it is sterling today that has the distinction of being the weakest of the majors.  It is off about 0.4% near midday in London following disappointing BRC sales (0.1...

While the strong Swiss franc is causing headaches for mid-ranged hotels, it is attracting foreign investors looking for hotels in the luxury sector. (RTS/swissinfo.ch) For many, Switzerland is a byword for luxury hospitality, stretching back more than a century to when ailing British aristocrats sought health treatments or adventurous travellers crossed the Alps. Many of the hotels that served these clients now require extensive renovations to remain competitive. Increasingly, hoteliers...

Since the start of 2016, women from non-European Union countries can no longer obtain special resident permits to work in Swiss strip clubs. A former cabaret owner speaks out. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) For the past 20 years a special version of the short-term “L” work permit was issued exclusively to cabaret and exotic dancers from countries not in the EU or the European Free Trade association (EFTA). The special status for cabaret dancers was introduced in 1995 and it allowed women from...

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan ChaseBrian T. Moynihan, Bank of AmericaMichael Corbat, Citigroup Gentlemen: On Friday, I attended a digital money summit at the Consumer Electronics Show. I am writing to you to warn you about the disruption that is about to occur in banking. There are many startups (and larger companies too) that are gunning for you. Perhaps you have watched what Uber has done to the taxi business? Well, these guys are planning the same thing for the banking business. Banks used to...