SNB & CHF

Fasten your seat belts.  The ride is going to get bumpy.   Economists may differ on what the ECB will do.   Investors may differ on the market response.  This uncertainty ensures a strong market reaction. The euro is off about 0.25% after recovering in the North American session yesterday.  The euro has spent this week thus far mostly within last Friday's trading range.  It has finished the North American session in the last four sessions between $1.0999 and $1.1014 according to...

The former chief editor of “The Economist” Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to Shakespeare’s seven phases of life.The seven stages are: Young debtor nation, Mature debtor nation, Debt repayment nation, Young creditor nation, Mature creditor nation, Credit disposition /Asset Liquidation nation and the back to start stage Read our discussion...

Investors are skeptical of Chinese economic data.  However, news yesterday that Chinese exports fell by a quarter in February was shocking. Many worry about the implications not just for China, but for world growth.  It comes as the IMF is signaling it will likely cut its 3.4% global growth forecast next month.  There are three separate forces that impacted Chinese trade figures.  First are price changes.  The dramatic drop in commodity prices, for example,  distorts the value of imports...

German Chancellor Merkel was right. As the Greek crisis was winding down last summer, she noted that the refugee problem would be even more difficult.  And indeed, it is. The refugee issue is challenging Merkel’s leadership in Europe.  While her trademark has been her sensitivity to swings in sentiment, she has seemed rather tone-deaf in dealing with the refugee crisis. Merkel still out of step with their European allies Her move this week suggests she is still out of step with many of...

The Canadian dollar appears vulnerable.  It remains firm while the US two-year premium over Canada has risen sharply.   Like others, we do not expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates today and are looking past it. This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg.  It shows the 2-year spread (white line) and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar (yellow line).  We use two different scales, but the point is not so much how precise they have tracked each other.  With two different scales...

The euro has peeled off a cent from yesterday's high near $1.1060 as some short-term players move to the sidelines ahead of the ECB meeting.  Recall that after peaking near $1.1375 on February 11 when the New Year's market angst peaked, the euro fell back to the lower end of its old range near $1.0825 in the middle of last week.  It then recovered by about 2.5 cents into yesterday's high, which saw it test the 20-day moving average for the first time since February 22. The...

A few weeks ago investors were bemoaning a new bear market for equities, and there was much ink spilled drawing parallels between now and 2008-2009.   Falling commodities, weakening growth, and prospects of Fed tightening saw the MSCI Emerging Market equity index fall 21.5% from early-November through the third week in January.  Since then it has rallied more than 16%, and both yesterday and earlier today traded above where it finished 2015.   The rebound in emerging market shares appears...

Switzerland’s best known visual artist, Pipilotti Rist, shares some of her thoughts on her retrospective, ‘Your Saliva is my Diving Suit in the Ocean of Pain’. The exhibition is now at Zurich’s Kunsthaus. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) -- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our...

Recent trends which include firmer equities and oil, weaker euro and bonds, and stronger dollar-bloc currencies are in reverse today, a turn-around Tuesday of sorts. MSCI's Emerging Market equity index is snapping a seven-day advancing streak, giving back yesterday's gains and a little more.  However, Chinese shares managed to post small gains.   China reported a shocking 25.4% decline in February exports (year-over-year in dollar terms).  This was a much larger drop than anyone...

08.03.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1602-40) Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2016 Consumer prices increase by 0.2% m/m and 0.8% y/y Neuchâtel, 08.03.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in February 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (December 2015=100 points). Inflation was -0.8% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). You can find the complete...