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FX Daily, January 8: Dollar Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% at 1.1222 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets remain calm after the surge in volatility seen over the last couple of weeks. Asian equities were mixed, with the Japanese, Australia and Indian shares gaining, but other large regional markets, like China,...

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Swiss unemployment hit ten-year low in 2018

There has been strong construction activity in Switzerland over the last two or three years The unemployment rate in Switzerland averaged 2.6% in 2018, a ten-year low, after strong economic growth in the first six months of the year, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The department said just over 118,000 people were registered with regional job centres during 2018 – 17.5% fewer than the...

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China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First PBOC Purchase Since October 2016

China increases gold holdings by large 320,000 ounces Gold bullion remains a tiny component of the People’s Bank of China massive foreign exchange (FX) reserves which rose to $3.073 trillion China’s gold reserves rose for first time since October 2016 to 59.56 million ounces by the end of December (1,853 metric tons) from 59.24 million ounces  Gold climbed 5% in December on equity rout, growth concerns by Bloomberg:...

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Living In The Present

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It’s that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will happen in 2019? Will it be as bad as 2018 when positive returns were hard to come by, as rare as affordable...

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Surest Way to Overthrow Capitalism, Report 6 Jan 2019

One of the most important problems in economics is: How do we know if an enterprise is creating or destroying wealth? The line between the two is objective, black and white. It should be clear that if business managers can’t tell the difference between a wealth-creating or wealth-destroying activity, then our whole society will be miserably poor. Any manager will tell you that it’s easy. Just look at the profit and loss...

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FX Daily, January 07: Recovery Falters in Europe

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% at 1.1229 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of robust US jobs and wage growth, more comforting words from Powell and a strong rally US stocks before the weekend helped lift Asian markets today and underpinned risk-taking appetites. However, renewed protests in France (and Hungary)...

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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time, Markets Exaggerate

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision. Yet far from...

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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?

It’s not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we also start looking for a reversal. So now that the herd is skittishly bearish, anticipating a recession, contrarians start wondering if a most hated rally is in the offing, one that would...

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VAT now applied to most foreign online shopping from 1 January 2019

© Ifeelstock | Dreamstime.com In 2016, Switzerland’s government decided to tighten the VAT exemption on imported purchases, a move that affects most online orders from foreign retailers. The new rules took effect on 1 January 2019 – they were originally planned for 1 January 2018 but systems and processes were not ready. Until the beginning of this year, any order attracting less than CHF 5 francs of VAT was allowed...

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More Unmixed Signals

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the country’s official manufacturing PMI in December 2018 dropped below 50 for the first time since the summer of 2016. Many if not most associate a number in the 40’s with contraction. While that may or not be the case, what’s more important is the quite well-established direction. Coming in at 49.4 in December, it’s down in a straight line from 51.3 in August....

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