SNB & CHF

We remain underweight peripheral euro area bonds in general due to continued political uncertainty, which will feed volatility. On April 28, Spain held its third general election in less than four years. As was expected, the centre-left Socialists (PSOE) emerged the largest party, but it does not have an absolute majority, so negotiations with other parties will be needed. But the political fog in Spain is unlikely to...

Xi and Maurer (centre) during the welcome ceremony in Beijing on Monday. Swiss President Ueli Maurer has been received by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, for a state visit at the end of a week-long visit to China. The talks on Monday focused on strengthening relations, notably on economic and finance matters, according to a government statementexternal link. Bilateral ties are at a “historic high in terms of...

Working hard and doing what you’re told is no longer yielding the promised American Dream of security, agency and liberty. Volume One of Fernand Braudel’s oft-recommended (by me) trilogy Civilization & Capitalism, 15th to 18th Century is titled The Structures of Everyday Life. The book describes how life slowly became better and freer as the roots of modern capitalism and liberty spread in western Europe, slowly...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.31% at 1.1437 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 set a new record high and close yesterday, but the lift to global markets was not strong enough to overcome the disappointing Chinese PMI. Although Chinese equities traded higher on ideas that the news will spur additional...

Brexit Limbo At present Theresa May is in talks with Jeremy Corbyn in order to try and come up with a mutually acceptable deal to put to Brussels. The problem is May can’t even get a deal that is acceptable within her own party let alone Labour as well. Her deal has been rejected three times and Brussels are stone walling us on the Irish border. Brussels have reiterated there will be no changes to the deal on the table...

30.04.2019 – The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.5% on average in 2018 compared with 2017. It settled at 101.6 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.9%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.4% (100.5 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2018 Source:...

Asylum seekers clean a park in Biasca, canton Ticino, in 2017 Over one-third of all asylum seekers and refugees in Switzerland are currently employed, according to State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) figures. But most of the jobs are precarious and the vast majority continue to receive state benefits. In one year, the employment rate for asylum seekers in Switzerland rose from 27% in March 2018 to 32% today, according...

I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua to talk about US GDP with David Riley from BlueBay Asset Management. Here is a link to a 2.5-minute clip. The initial estimate of Q1 US growth was well more than nearly anyone expected. The details were underwhelming as the consumption was halved and the GDP deflator was halved. Final private domestic sales, which strips away inventories, trade, and government spending rose 1.3%,...

We have a postscript to our ongoing discussion of inflation. A reader pointed out that Levis 501 jeans are $39.19 on Amazon (in Keith’s size—Amazon advertises prices as low as $16.31, which we assume is for either a very small size that uses less fabric, or an odd size that isn’t selling). Think of the enormity of this. The jeans were $50 in 1983. After 36 years of relentless inflation (or hot air about inflation), the...

No super-wealthy individual or household is going to pay billions in additional taxes when $10 to $20 million will purchase political adjustments. The 2020 election cycle has begun, and a popular campaign promise is “free everything” paid for by new taxes on the super-wealthy. Who doesn’t like free stuff? Who will vote for whomever offers them free stuff? No wonder it’s a popular campaign promise. As even the most...