Tag Archives: USD

- Click to enlarge The US dollar was sliding as I joined Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on the Bloomberg Markets show.  I tried making the case, as I have in recent posts, that the dollar’s rally in the first half of the month had left it over-extended. Most of the major currencies were outside of their Bollinger Bands a week ago and had begun correcting since August 15. Reports of President Trump’s criticism of the...

This Great Graphic depicts what appears to be a head and shoulders top in the hourly bar chart of the Dollar Index. The neckline is found near 96.00 and rotating the pattern along it produces a measuring objective near 95.00. The bearish pattern was formed in the last few days, and the Dollar Index was resting near the neckline before Trump’s comments gave it the push. The low today is near 95.45, which corresponds to...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.1378. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is broadly lower following President Trump’s comments yesterday, criticising Fed policy and reiterating his previously made claim that China and the EU are manipulating their currencies. We suggested that last week’s...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.1348. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the major currencies, as the light participation and lack of fresh news see a consolidative tone emerge after the pullback at the end of last week. Although markets in Turkey are closed for a...

Turkey Officials have taken steps to make it more difficult and more expensive to short the lira, but that did not prevent a 5% slide ahead of the weekend. There is no interest rate, within reason, that can compensate for such currency risk. When S&P cut its sovereign credit rating to B+ from BB- and retained a stable outlook, it did not cite the dispute over the pastor. Moody’s cut Turkey’s rating to Ba3 from Ba2...

The US policy mix gets a privileged place in our understanding of what is the dollar. Tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy could be the closest thing to an elixir for currencies. It is the policy mix that the US is pursuing. The idea is that such a policy mixed draws capital inflows. This is exactly what is happening. The June TIC data was reported yesterday, and there was a net purchase of $114.5 bln of US...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.1348. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the world’s currencies today. The main exceptions come from the emerging markets where the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso are the chief exceptions, and their losses are modest....

This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate. It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line). The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month. The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now. Connecting the 2016 dollar lows and the low from late March this year is a red line. It is found near JPY105.60. Together both lines mark a...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.1264. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Turkish lira is extending yesterday’s recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.41% to 1.1282. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey, but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira’s upticks. The implication of this is that it...