Tag Archives: US business cycles

Latest data indicates the US business cycle is in good shape and sets the stage for rate hike next month.US employment grew by 250,000 in October (+1.7% y-o-y); the 3-month average is now a solid 218,000/month, and strong October payroll results were strong, which bodes well for US GDP growth in Q4. It appears therefore that the US’ heated rhetoric towards China is having little effect so far on the US economy.The mere fact that the US economy continues to generate such job growth is an...

The upswing in US capex defies negative trade headlines.The torrent of coverage about trade tensions hides an important positive development: US corporate investment is flourishing, and there are increasing signs this upswing in capital expenditure (capex) could persist. This could in turn mean that the US business cycle has further room to run, despite its advanced age, and that recession is still some way off.A survey we like to watch, particularly to gauge capex trends, is the quarterly...

Despite the length of the current expansion, we believe US growth still has some way to go. But there are signs the economy is becoming bubbly.The key debate right now among economists revolves around how further will the expansionary phase of the US business cycle go. We are already over 100 months into the current phase (it started in July 2009), making it the third-longest period of post-World War II expansion. The longest was 119 months, between April 1991 and February 2001. Our view is...

The US expansion has crossed the 100-month mark. But while it has aged, the economy still has legs.The US expansion, which started in July 2009, just crossed its 100-month mark, making it – for now – the third longest in the National Bureau of Economic Research database, which stretches back to 1854. The longest growth was 119 months between April 1991 and February 2001.The exceptional length of this expansion, already well above the 94-month average for the three previous growth cycles,...