Tag Archives: Trump trade tariffs

As the US vies to maintain world leadership beyond commerce, its policies will continue to create waves for markets.Today we are witnessing a redefinition of international relations and a new, although likely unstable, global equilibrium. The trade dispute unfolding today between the US and China should be seen in light of shifting structural trends that have developed over the last few decades. We expect rationality will eventually prevail, but the outlook is muddled by the Trump...

While we are maintaining our 3% growth forecast for 2019, we have slightly reduced our baseline forecast for 2019.The Trump administration has been stepping up its trade rhetoric further, with concrete increases in trade tariffs already kicking in, and others in the near-term pipeline: tariffs on steel and aluminium came into effect in early June, and there will be 25% tariffs on USD 34 billion of Chinese imports (out of a total of USD505 billion in 2017) from 6 July. President Trump has...

The likelihood of tariffs has increased. Although there is still room for negotiation, the process could be long and bumpy.A US delegation of Trump’s top economic advisors, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, had a two-day meeting with their Chinese counterparts in Beijing on 3-4 May to discuss the trade issues between the two nations. It appears that the meeting has led to little progress in solving the trade disputes between the two, meaning the trade tensions may persist for quite...

While our central scenario remains unchanged, we still see downside risks increasing from recent trade escalation.Following on from President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on USD50bn of unspecified imports from China, the US Trade Representative (USTR) last week detailed the list of China-made goods that will be targeted. China reacted swiftly by detailing its own list of counter-tariffs on USD50bn worth of imports from the US. Trump then escalated the rhetoric further when he...

US trade policy's attention is now turning towards China, with a threat of new tariffs. But we see here a lot of political rhetoric.After the tariffs on steel and aluminium, the Trump Administration’s attention now seems to be focused on China as the US’s merchandise trade deficit with China rose to a new high of USD 375bn in 2017. The trade hawks close to Trump – Ross, Lighthizer and Navarro – seem to be having an increasing influence on Trump, and they seem eager to reach a new deal with...