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Many commentators consider the spread between the long-term interest rate and the short-term interest rate as an important indicator to establish the future course of economic activity. An increase in the spread is seen as pointing toward good economic times ahead. Conversely, a declining spread raises the likelihood of an economic recession.Historically, in the U.S., the differential between the yield on the 10-year T-bill and the federal funds rate was leading the...

Editors note: The following article was published in July 1974 in The Libertarian Forum titled “One Heartbeat Away.” In it, Murray Rothbard provides elite theory analysis of Watergate after the selection of Nelson Rockefeller as Gerald Ford’s Vice President. While Rothbard’s fear of a Rockefeller presidency did not come to fruition, his post-political life included the creation of the Trilateral Commission which continued to have incredible influence over future...

Money-supply growth rose year over year in June for the second month in a row. This is the first time the money supply has grown for two months in a row since October of 2022. The current trend in money-supply growth suggests a significant turnaround from more than a year of historically large contractions in the money supply that occurred throughout much of 2023 and 2024. As of June, the money supply appears to be, for now, in a period of stabilization.The...

I am excited to announce our next major project here at the Mises Institute, the Lessons for the Young Economist video series. This will be designed for homeschoolers and young people. It will be something they will actually want to watch! And with the Mises Institute’s name on it, parents, grandparents, and educators will know they can trust the content.The latest estimates reveal that nearly 2.7 million students have exited government public schools. These...

I frequently receive comments about the strength of the United States economy and the unfairness of perceiving things as less than stellar. Is it really the “strongest economy ever”? It’s evident that it’s far from being the “strongest economy ever.”The United States unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, the highest in three years, which is also significantly higher than the level seen in 2019. In June, a 70,000 increase in government jobs boosted payroll employment...

Former president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump loves tariffs. In his 2011 book Time to Get Tough: Making America #1 Again, Trump included as part of his five-part tax policy “a 20 percent tax for importing goods.” During his first campaign for president, he called for a 35 percent tariff on cars and trucks imported from a proposed new Ford plant in Mexico and a 45 percent tariff on all imported goods from China “if they don’t behave.”...

Historian Julian Zelizer writes that Watergate-style investigations are OK sometimes, but we shouldn’t go overboard in being mistrustful of the government. After all, “faith in government,” Zelizer writes, “is necessary for a healthy society.” As Rothbard notes below, the watergate scandal was an excellent event precisely because it undermined faith in government. Zelizer, however, tells us to “banish the memories of Watergate” so we can get over all this unhealthy...

Even as speculative unwinds look largely done, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia should be watched as it could bolster safe haven demand for CHF and JPY, DBS FX & Credit Strategist Chang Wei Liang notes. SNB introduces a floor for EUR/CHF “Egypt’s aviation ministry instructed all airlines to avoid Iran airspace due to military drills, while Ukraine staged a surprise military incursion into Russia. We are cautious...

Overview:  Yesterday's poor 10-year note US Treasury auction helped turn the equity market lower and this carried over into Asia Pacific and European activity today. Today, Treasury completes its quarterly refunding with the sale of $25 bln 30-year bonds. The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. Japanese investors were buyers of foreign stocks on bonds last week, according to the latest portfolio flow report, which is not what one...

What is the Mises Institute? The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order....