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Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate. There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but it was a hawkish hold, as there was a dissent in favor of an immediate rate hike, and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee showed that their patience with both...

Stock Markets EM FX had a stellar week, ending on a strong note in the aftermath of what the market perceived as a dovish Fed hike Wednesday.  Every EM currency except ARS was up on the week vs. USD, with the best performers ZAR, TRY, COP, and MXN. There are some risks ahead for EM this week, with many Fed speakers lined up and perhaps willing to push back against the market’s dovish take on the FOMC. Stock Markets...

20 Minutes. Swiss post has said it will deliver the first packages by air this summer. The first deliveries will be made between two medical laboratories on the southern side of the Alps. Swiss Post Drone - Click to enlarge . Test flights were conducted in the canton of Bern last year. Now Swiss Post is ready to make commercial deliveries starting in Lugano. The two medical labs, one kilometre apart, belong to the...

  Onward vs. Upward Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century.  Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward.  Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired. What happened to the miracle? The Keynesian wet dream of an unfettered fiat debt money system has been realized, and debt has been duly expanded at...

Summay The PBOC increased the rates it charges for OMO and MLF by 10 bp. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s BJP won elections in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Czech central bank broached the possibility of a koruna cap exit later than mid-2017. Kuwait became the first OPEC member to call for extended output cuts. Moody’s raised the outlook on Brazil’s Ba2 rating from negative to stable. Brazilian prosecutor Janot has given the...

According to Alan Greenspan in a speech delivered at Stanford University in September 1997, monetary policy in the United States had been shed of M1 by late 1982. The Fed has never been explicit about exactly when, or even why, monetary policy changed dramatically in the 1980’s to a regime of pure interest rate targeting of the federal funds rate. In those days, transparency was no virtue but rather it was widely...

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at–0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has fallen again as the US Federal Reserve have raised interest rates last night. This has seen the Pound fall against most major currencies and the safe haven status of the Swiss Franc has once again helped to improve CHF/GBP rates We now also have the news...

Summary: Fed made mostly minor changes in the statement as it hiked the Fed funds rate for the third time in the cycle. The average and median dot for Fed funds crept slightly higher. There was only one dissent to the decision. The Federal Reserve delivered the much-anticipated rate hike. There was one dissent, the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. In the first paragraph of the FOMC statement tweaked the...