Tag Archives: newsletter

Summary: Divergence between US and Canada’s two-year rates is key for USD-CAD exchange rate. Canada’s 2 hikes in Q3 were not part of a sustained tightening sequence. Policy mix considerations also favor the greenback if US policy becomes more stimulative. Many observers saw Canada as one of the canaries in the coal mine, warning that the divergence theme was over.  The Bank of Canada did hike rates twice in...

USD/CHF EUR/CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge USD/JPY [embedded content] USD/JPY with Technical Indicators, October 23(see more posts on USD/JPY, ) - Click to enlarge EUR/USD [embedded content] EUR/USD with Technical Indicators, October 23(see more posts on EUR/USD, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/USD [embedded content] GBP/USD...

Summary: Busy week of economic data and central bank meetings, and reaction to Spanish developments and Japan and Czech elections. Focus below is on the Bank of Canada and ECB meetings and tax reform in the US. The biggest challenge to tax reform is unlikely on the committee level but on the floor votes, especially in the Senate, in a similar way the stymied health care reform. US and German 2-year rates are...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a soft note. Indeed, nearly every EM currency was down for the entire week, led by ZAR, BRL, and TRY. While higher US rates will pressure EM FX as a whole, we think heightend political risk will continue to hit these three currencies particularly hard, plus perhaps MXN too. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 21 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Korea Korea...

© Erix2005 | Dreamstime - Click to enlarge On Wednesday, Switzerland’s Federal Council said it would stand behind the country’s winter Olympic bid to the tune of nearly one billion francs, according to newspaper 20 Minutes. The town of Sion, in Valais, is throwing its Olympic hat into the ring as the centerpiece for the 2026 winter games. Other cantons would also host certain events. In autumn 2019, a choice will be...

Last year Switzerland’s government announced plans to change the rules on charging VAT on imported goods. © Rido Dreamstime - Click to enlarge Currently, most things ordered abroad and sent through the post to Switzerland that attract VAT of less than CHF 5, are waived through customs free of charge. This means if you buy clothing worth less than CHF 62.50, or books worth less than CHF 200, there is no import charge –...

– 10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th– Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP– Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later– S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value– Gold’s performance is slowly forcing...

Here’s a chart of our fabulous always-higher GDP, adjusted for another bogus metric, official inflation. The theme this week is The Rot Within. The rot eating away at our society and economy is typically papered over with bogus statistics that “prove” everything’s getting better every day in every way. The prime “proof” of rising prosperity is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which never fails to loft higher, with the...

The rot within manifested by the pharmaceutical industry almost defies description. The theme this week is The Rot Within. America’s Pharmaceutical industry takes pride of place in this week’s theme of The Rot Within, as the industry has raised fraud, exploitation and collusion to systemic perfection. What other industry can routinely kill hundreds of thousands of Americans and suffer no blowback? Only recently has the...

Summary: Abe’s political gamble appears likely to pay off. The third arrow of structural reforms continues. The FSA is continuing to push for shareholder value. Foreign investors have gone on a three-week buying spree that appears to be the largest in years, and the Nikkei is leading G7 bourses higher this month. Japan’s Abe’s gamble to call snap elections shortly after the stunning defeat in the Tokyo...