Swiss Franc EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc December 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge The pound has tailed off from its recent high against the Swiss Franc over the last couple of weeks with rates for GBP CHF sitting at 1.27 for this pair. The pound seems to have climbed as far as it can against most of the major currencies with the current economic and political factors at...
Read More »You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?
Summary: Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling’s decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan’s decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis. As investors and traders, we are familiar with the developments in the...
Read More »FX Daily, December 20: Yen Surrenders Yesterday’s Gains, while Euro Struggles to Hold above $1.04
Swiss Franc EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The yen’s incredible ride this year has been recapitulated in recent days. Consider that before last weekend; the US dollar reached a little above JPY118.40. At its extreme yesterday, the dollar fell to JPY116.55. Today it reached traded near JPY118.25 in the European morning, where...
Read More »FX Daily, December 19: EUR/CHF Dives under 1.07
Swiss Franc Once again a line in sand for the Swiss National Bank is broken. The EUR/CHF falls under 1.07. But trading algorithms are like this: When the EUR/USD is falling, then the EUR/CHF must follow. The SNB decided not to intervene any more at 1.07. Two potential reasons: We doubted that Swiss inflation might overtake European inflation in 2019 or 2020. Interventions at higher levels are risky, given that stock...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Twas the Week Before Christmas, Amidst Powerful Trends
Summary: The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking. The capital markets have been buffeted by political developments and central bank policies. The direct influence of high...
Read More »FX Daily, December 16: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of the Weekend, Dollar Consolidates Gains
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Some mild position squaring pressures are evident ahead of the weekend, and for many market participants the year is coming to an end. Outside of the BOJ meeting next week, the calendar turns light and markets are moving into holiday mode. The Dollar Index is seeing this week’s gains trimmed, but it is...
Read More »Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar Outlook
I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade. The dollar rallied.I was surprised by the changed forecasts. The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational...
Read More »FX Daily, December 14: Markets Quietly Edge into FOMC Meeting
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data...
Read More »FX Daily, December 14: Markets Quietly Edge into FOMC Meeting
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data...
Read More »FX Daily, December 13: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. The dollar finished yesterday’s North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited. After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. ...
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