Tag Archives: Italy budget plan

While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk. According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast. This was the weakest quarterly growth figure for the euro area since Q2 2014 and...

While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk.According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast. This was the weakest quarterly growth figure for the euro area since Q2 2014 and marks the widest divergence vis-à-vis the US since 2015.Advanced estimates...

Rome’s budget plans put it on a collision course with the European Commission. The Italian government has submitted its 2019 draft budget plan (DBP) to the European Commission. The proposed DBP is not in line with European Union rules and sets the government on a collision course with the European authorities. Several elements within the Italian government’s budget plan have been raising eyebrows. First, the plans’...

Rome’s budget plans put it on a collision course with the European Commission.The Italian government has submitted its 2019 draft budget plan (DBP) to the European Commission. The proposed DBP is not in line with European Union rules and sets the government on a collision course with the European authorities.Several elements within the Italian government’s budget plan have been raising eyebrows. First, the plans’ economic assumptions seem too optimistic to us, and there is a risk that the...

Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target. Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid- October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%? Is Italy being...

Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target.Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid-October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%? Is Italy being treated unfairly by its European partners and by markets? Italy and France...

Latest poverty figures provide government with an argument for fiscal stumulus. Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase...

Latest poverty figures provide government with an argument for fiscal stumulus.Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase instalments or other loan payments; one week’s holiday away from home; a meal...

Given the market volatility we expect around 2019 budget discussions in Italy, we remain bearish on euro peripheral bonds in general.Italy is coming back into focus as investors become increasingly nervous about 2019 budget discussions. September will be a key moment to gauge the intentions of the Italian government regarding its 2019 budget. Indeed, more details will become available when the Italian government publishes the updated Economic and Financial Document (DEF), no later than 27....

Tensions between Rome and Brussels could lead to significant market volatility before an agreement is found. September will be a key month for gauging the Italian government’s budgetary plans for 2019. The government has communicated neither a precise timeline for implementing the measures announced in its ‘contract for government’ nor a precise cost analysis for these measures. In this contract, the governing...