Tag Archives: inflation

Gemäss einer Umfrage unter 152 Pensionskassen mit Vermögen von 2 Billionen Euro erwartet die Hälfte in den nächsten drei Jahren ein Stagflationsszenario wie in den 1970er Jahren.

Overview: The softer than expected US CPI drove the dollar and interest rates lower, while igniting strong advances in equities, risk assets, commodities, and gold. Calmer market conditions are prevailing today, and we suspect that in the run-up to the FOMC meeting, a broadly consolidative tone will emerge. The dollar is mostly softer, but within yesterday’s ranges. Only the New Zealand and Canadian dollars among the G10 currencies are softer. Emerging market...

What physical precious metals investors can expect 2023 and beyond Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this...

What physical precious metals investors can expect 2023 and beyond Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this era of irrationality in...

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the strong advance seen...

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13. The terms of the debate have shifted. It is no longer about when US inflation will peak but how fast it will come down....

The week ahead is more than an interlude before five G10 central banks meet on December 14-15. The data highlights include the US ISM services and producer prices, Chinese trade and inflation measures, Japanese wages, household consumption, and the current account. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada hold policy meetings. Central banks from India, Poland, Brazil, Peru, and Chile also meet.The dollar appreciated in Q1 and Q2 despite the economy...

Overview: Hope that the recent events in China are cathartic continues to lift risk appetites. Led by Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there, the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rallied. Japan, where macro data continues to disappoint, was the notable exception. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day down draft and is up about 0.6% in late morning turnover. US futures are trading with a slightly firmer bias. The 10-year US Treasury yield is...

Two high-frequency economic reports stand out in the week ahead:  The US November employment report and the preliminary eurozone CPI. The Federal Reserve has deftly distanced itself from any one employment report. As a result, it would take a significant miss of the median forecast (Bloomberg survey) to alter market expectations for a 50 bp hike when the FOMC meeting concludes on December 14.Economists are looking for around a 200k increase in US non-farm payrolls...

When you invest in gold or buy silver coins with GoldCore you are choosing to invest in an asset that has no counterparty risk. Sadly those who have been holding their bitcoin on the crypto exchange FTX, have not experienced the same level of reassurance and service from the exchange’s management. This event is all part of a much wider lesson about which assets really are safe havens. Also how to reduce the level of counterparty risk your investment portfolio is...