Tag Archives: Great Graphic

This Great Graphic caught my eye.  It was tweeted by Ninja Economics.  Her point was about immigration.  German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%. She noted that Greece is the only developed country where real wages have collapsed as much as in the UK.  This is amazing, and not because of...

Summary: Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling’s decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan’s decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis. As investors and traders, we are familiar with the developments in the...

In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces. David Leonhardt of the New York Times reminds us that the phrase “American Dream” was born during the Depression.  A popular book in 1931 that introduced the concept  defined it as “that dream of a land...

In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces. David Leonhardt of the New York Times reminds us that the phrase “American Dream” was born during the Depression.  A popular book in 1931 that introduced the concept  defined it as “that dream of a land...

Summary: The Dollar Index’s technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days. We took a closer look at the US Dollar Index last week. In our write up, we noted highlighted the importance of the 100.60 area. We warned that a break of that support could signal the start of a deeper...

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September.  Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their own.   Since September 30, the US 10-year yield has from below 1.60% to above 2.40% at the end of last week.   Japan’s 10-year yield has risen from minus nine basis points...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Most economists are focusing on either US monetary policy or US fiscal policy. We focus on the policy mix. After the policy mix, politics is also a weigh on the euro. Our long-term call is for the euro to revisit the lows from 2000. The euro has...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President. The US policy mix is changing. The trajectory of...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: The dollar’s trade-weighted index is firming and a couple percentage points from the year’s high set in January. The yen’s trade-weighted index is at several month lows, but remains dramatically higher year-to-date. The euro’s trade-weighted index has...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: US 10-year rate premium is the largest in 2.5 years. US 2-year premium is the most since Q4 2008. Japanese investors likely will be buying foreign bonds, while foreigners may see opportunities in Japanese stocks after being large sellers in the first 9...