Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies. From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns. Since 1833, the S&P 500 index has...

Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day, while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The Mexican peso's and South Korean won's...

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows. “New...

Share this article The New Year is usually associated with a new beginning, a fresh start, or a “clean slate”. Unfortunately, for millions of Americans, these are wishes that are bound to remain unfulfilled – for them, the New Year has nothing “new” to offer at all: it will only perpetuate all the same burdens, obligations and worries of the past year and of the ones that came before. One physical, practical manifestation of this (though it is certainly not a unique, or even a rare,...

The New Year is usually associated with a new beginning, a fresh start, or a “clean slate”. Unfortunately, for millions of Americans, these are wishes that are bound to remain unfulfilled – for them, the New Year has nothing “new” to offer at all: it will only perpetuate all the same burdens, obligations and worries of the past year and of the ones that came before. One physical, practical manifestation of this (though it is certainly not a unique, or even a rare,...

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

Part II of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland This is precisely what the State is doing. The idea of war, mayhem and destruction being economic boosters is exactly what has supported the thin facade that politicians like to place over their greed and their personal gain that they derive from the military industrial complex. “It’s good for the country”, is certainly easier to sell than “it’s good for me and my reelection campaign”. The taxpayer will not see...

Part II of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland This is precisely what the State is doing. The idea of war, mayhem and destruction being economic boosters is exactly what has supported the thin facade that politicians like to place over their greed and their personal gain that they derive from the military industrial complex. “It’s good for the country”, is certainly easier to sell than “it’s good for me and my reelection campaign”....

Panel at the Bank of Canada/Riksbank Conference on the Economics of CBDC, November 16, 2023. Video. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, UCSB professor Rod Garratt and myself assess the case for central bank digital currency and stable coins and respond to excellent questions from the audience.

Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Sterling seems largely unaffected by the cabinet reshuffle that has seen former Prime Minister Camron return as the foreign minister, replacing Cleverly who replaces Home Secretary Braverman. The dollar rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen (~JPY151.85). The market has shown little reaction to the pre-weekend news that Moody's cut the outlook for US credit to...