Tag Archives: Featured

Many claim that China manipulates its economic data. We explain why the best way not to get caught is to lower the GDP deflator, as lower inflation helps to increase real GDP. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach. Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green has said that China’s official GDP figures were boosted by government statisticians underestimating inflation, which results in an overestimate of actual growth. And the New York Times recently...

Marc Meyer argues that the Swiss National Bank must build up reserves, but this does not mean “foreign exchange reserves”, but “Swiss Franc reserves”. According to the constitution these reserves are owners’ equity denominated in Swiss Franc and some gold. Thomas Jordan’s famous paper “Does the SNB need equity” tries to overturn the constitution suggesting that the constitution accepts FX investments as “reserves”. Russia builds up foreign reserves with national resources, with equity, the...

I wrote a story about poor Clarence who retired in 1979, and even poorer Larry who retired last year. I created these characters to challenge the notion of calculating a real interest rate by subtracting inflation. The idea is that the decline of a currency can be measured by the rate of price increases. This price-centric view leads to the concept of purchasing power—the amount of stuff that a dollar can buy. It’s the flip side of prices. When prices rise, purchasing power falls. Recall in...

Dear Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, First, congratulations for mustering the popular support to say “no” to the troika. The euro has long offered Greece a perverse incentive to borrow, and now your country is trapped in debt. By any conventional means, Greece cannot repay (I propose an unconventional way, below). The sooner everyone acknowledges this simple fact the better. While I don’t claim to know why you agreed to a bailout deal this weekend, I can guess. The troika threatened to...

By inflation, I don’t refer to rising consumer prices in Athens. My Greek friends tell me that prices have been steady there in recent years. The focus on prices is the greatest sleight of hand ever perpetrated. It diverts your attention away from the real action. Inflation is the counterfeiting of credit. It is borrowing, when you can’t pay and you know it. Inflation is taking money under false pretenses, and issuing fraudulent bonds. This describes the Greek finances perfectly. Greece...

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will profit on...

We show the two phases or two innings or phases of Swiss franc appreciation: The “risk aversion game” and the “inflation game”. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the “risk aversion game“, the first innings in a two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered thanks to lower oil prices.The “inflation game”...

 (post written originally in March 2013) We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital (now called  “financial”) account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current account...