Tag Archives: Featured

The Pound has had its worst day in two months yesterday, with exchange rates against most of its major currencies now reaching a two month low, and Swiss Franc exchange rates reaching down to the much dearer end of the 1.20’s once more. Theresa May’s comments yesterday were inflammatory but still fairly vague. She gave little away but markets were all collectively worried enough about the potential reaction that this...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango.   Supply-Demand Fundamentals Improve Noticeably Last week was another short week, due to the New Year holiday. We look forward to getting back to our regularly scheduled market action. Photo via thedailycoin.org - Click to enlarge Gold and Silver Prices The prices of both metals moved up again this week. Something very...

The Swiss National Bank has announced 24 bn profits for 2016. Profits came from the dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, while the pound retreated by 15%. The EUR/CHF is only slightly weaker, mostly because the SNB actively supported the euro. SNB profits on USD, CAD and JPY, loses on GBP (see more posts on British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese yen, SNB profit, US dollar, )FX rates for USD, JPY, EUR, GBP in 2016 with...

The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so that used goods do not...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...

If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation. I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years, (Could the U.S. Dollar Rise 50%?, January 12, 2011), and I described the positive dynamics of bitcoin last summer in An Everyman’s...

Headlines Week January 09, 2017 Who has read Milton Friedman knows that the Trump reflation trade is now showing its positive side. US wages are rising by 2.5%, while inflation is still relatively low. According to Friedman, inflation will increase only later. This implies that speculators are long the dollar and short the Swiss franc and the euro during the weak inflation period. The last ECB meeting showed that the...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

The Swiss National Bank has announced 24 bn profits from 2016. Profits came from the dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, while the pound retreated by 15%. The EUR/CHF is only slightly weaker, mostly because the SNB actively supported the euro. SNB profits on USD, CAD and JPY, loses on GBP . The SNB mostly profited on rising U.S. stock markets, in particular the S&P500. SNB Profit Increases Thanks to Well Performing...

Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...