Tag Archives: Featured

Son of the Imperial City What are the chances of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being wrong?  The chances he’ll be wrong on the economy’s growth prospects, the direction of the federal funds rate, and inflation itself?  Our guess is his chances of being wrong are quite high. The new central planner-in-chief. - Click to enlarge Central banks are facing a special case of the socialist calculation problem...

Eurozone The investment meme of a synchronized global upturn has been undermined by the recent string of US and European economic data. The flash March eurozone composite reading fell to 55.3, the lowest reading since January 2017. Although Q4 17 US GDP may be revised higher (toward 2.8% from 2.5%) mostly due to greater inventory accumulation, the curse of weak Q1 GDP appears to be showing its hand again, with...

Despite the rise in foreign imports, the most popular cheeses are traditional varieties, such as the famous Emmental cheese. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Switzerland may be living up to its cliché as a cheese loving nation, but a growing appetite for foreign brands has alarmed local farmers. On average the Swiss consumed 21 kilograms of cheese per person last year, compared to 18 kilograms across Europe,...

A 2016 taxi driver protest against Uber, in Bern. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge For the first time, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has clearly indicated that Uber taxi drivers should be classed as employees rather than self-employed. In an internal statement seen by the 10vor10 programme on Swiss public television, SECO gave the legal opinion that according to the conditions that...

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton – Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed – Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table) – Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5% – Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China – Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed...

On Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Central Banker Crisis Handbook it states very clearly, “do not make it worse.” It’s something like the Hippocratic oath where monetary authorities must first assess what their actions might do to an already fragile system. It’s why they take great pains to try and maintain composure, appearing calm and orderly while conflagration rages all around. The last thing you want to do is confirm the...

SPX, Quo Vadis? Considering the Crash Potential In view of the fact that the stock market action has gotten a bit out of hand again this week, we are providing a brief update of charts we have discussed in these pages over the past few weeks (see e.g. “The Flight to Fantasy”). We are doing this mainly because the probability that a low probability event will actually happen has increased somewhat in recent days....

Today’s first batch of euro area March business surveys looks worrying at first sight. The drop in the euro area composite PMI index, from 57.1 to 55.3 in March (consensus: 56.8), was the second one in a row and the largest monthly decline in six years. New orders fell to a 14-month low. The correction in business sentiment was predominantly driven by the manufacturing sector, which could reflect broader concerns of a...

Swiss Federal Railways CEO Andreas Meyer presented the company's annual figures on Tuesday at a press conference in Bern. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge The Swiss Federal Railway’s net profit increased by CHF18 million ($19 million) to CHF399 million ($418 million) last year despite posting a loss in its troubled freight division. The company confirmed a previous decision to cut 800 freight jobs but plans to...

Salt, formerly called Orange, is already established in the Swiss mobile market. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Mobile telephone operator Salt has announced that it will begin offering landline services in Switzerland, in a move set to intensify competition amongst current providers. Salt, which is already an established player in the mobile market, announced on Tuesdayexternal link that it would be proposing...