Tag Archives: euro area headline inflation

Latest growth data indicate continuation of a strong and stable recovery. Our GDP forecasts remain unchanged.Euro area headline GDP growth was confirmed at 0.6% q-o-q in Q3.At the country level, Germany surprised to the upside, posting GDP growth of 0.8% q-o-q in Q3 and beating consensus expectations. The impressive performance was driven by exports and investment in equipment and machinery. Turning to Italy, economic activity strengthened in Q3. After a rise of 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, real GDP...

While core inflation was slightly stronger than expected in June, we believe it will rise only slowly for the rest of this year.Euro area ‘flash’ HICP inflation eased to 1.3% y-o-y in June (down from 1.4% in May) while core inflation increased to 1.1% (up from 0.9% in May). Both figures were slightly above consensus expectations, but our overall assessment is unchanged. The bottom line from the June inflation report is that the broad picture remains unchanged – we continue to expect euro...

Euro area headline inflation declined by a larger margin than expected. Our main explanation is related to statistical effects.Euro area headline inflation declined for the first time in almost a year, by a larger margin than expected by the consensus. Headline HICP eased to 1.5% in March, from 2.0% in February, while core HICP inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) dropped to a two-year low of 0.67% y-o-y, from 0.86% in February. The harmonised inflation rate dropped by...

Nonetheless, the acceleration in headline figures in December masks subdued core inflation. We believe weak core prices will mean the rise in headline inflation will soon stall.Euro area flash HICP inflation rose from 0.6% in November to 1.1% year on year (y-o-y) in December, while core inflation increased slightly to 0.9%, both above consensus expectations. The breakdown by components showed that the main driver of the increase was energy prices.In the next few months, euro area inflation...

With the ECB still concerned about weak dynamics in core prices and wages, we believe a 6-month extension of QE will be announced in December, with asset purchases of EUR80 bn per month.Euro area flash HICP inflation rose from 0.4% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 0.5% in October, while core inflation remained stable at 0.8%. Both figures were in line with market expectations. However, the details behind the core inflation figure were slightly weaker than expected.Euro area inflation is...

Macroview Headline inflation in the euro area doubled in September as the impact of weaker energy prices declined, but core inflation was stable. As expected, euro area flash HICP inflation rose to 0.4% year on year (y-o-y) in September, from 0.2% in August as the impact of weak energy prices continued to fade. But measures of core inflation were slightly weaker than expected, remaining stable at 0.8% y-o-y against expectations of a small rise.Weaker industrial goods inflation in particular...