Tag Archives: euro area growth forecast

The general improvement in hard data holds out the possibility of a positive surprise when preliminary GDP figures are announced next week.Next week will be a busy one for Europe, with lots of data releases: European Commission business survey (April); advance GDP (Q1); M3 money supply (March); HICP flash estimate of inflation (April); and final manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs, April). The advance Q1 GDP will be especially closely watched. No euro area GDP breakdown will be...

The balance of risks to growth in the region is still tilted to the downside. The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached. A rebound was already expected in Q4 2018, but at the start of this year there are still few signs of recovery. Flash composite PMI numbers for the region declined by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January, the weakest level since July 2013. New orders and...

The balance of risks to growth in the region is still tilted to the downside.The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached. A rebound was already expected in Q4 2018, but at the start of this year there are still few signs of recovery. Flash composite PMI numbers for the region declined by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January, the weakest level since July 2013. New orders and new export orders remained weak and below the economic expansion threshold...

We have upgraded our growth projection for this year and next. There are upside risks to our forecast that the ECB will start hiking rates in Q3 2019. Taking account of stronger growth momentum, the carryover effect and upward revisions to past data, we have upgraded our euro area annual GDP growth forecasts to 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Our forecasts remain consistent with a very gradual slowdown in the quarterly...

We have upgraded our growth projection for this year and next. There are upside risks to our forecast that the ECB will start hiking rates in Q3 2019. Taking account of stronger growth momentum, the carryover effect and upward revisions to past data, we have upgraded our euro area annual GDP growth forecasts to 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Our forecasts remain consistent with a very gradual slowdown in the quarterly pace of GDP growth, to 2% by...

GDP figures confirming a strong and steady expansion have yet to turn up in core inflation data.According to preliminary Eurostat estimates, euro area real GDP increased by 0.6% q-o-q in Q3, slowing marginally from an upwardly-revised 0.7% in Q2. A breakdown by expenditure components will not be released until 14 November, but domestic demand was likely the key driver in the euro area’s solid momentum.At a country level, France and Spain are the first of the big four euro area economies to...

A growth spurt may push us to raise our euro area GDP forecast for this year and next, although we expect some slowdown in the pace of expansion and the ECB to continue to act cautiously.While the latest euro area GDP numbers were broadly in line with expectations, at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, net revisions to past data pushed the GDP profile higher again.Once detailed estimates are published by Eurostat—and assuming there are no significant revisions to past data—we might revise our...

PMI surveys for the euro area eased somewhat in July, suggesting that momentum slowed at the start of Q3. We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 1.9% for 2017.The composite flash PMI fell to 55.8 in July from 56.4 in May, below consensus expectations (56.2). The headline dip was entirely driven by the manufacturing index, which fell to 56.8 in July from 57.4 in June. By contrast, the services index remained stable at 55.4. The PMI’s forward-looking components remained pretty strong, despite...

Growth in the euro area outstripped growth in the US last year, while the latest indicators suggest 2017 has gotten off to a strong start. Our GDP forecasts are pushed up mechanically. Euro area real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q in the fourth quarter, marking an acceleration from Q3’s 0.4% gain. The euro area economy grew at an annual average of 1.7% in 2016, compared with 1.9% in 2015. Last year was the first time since 2008 that real GDP growth in the euro area was above that of the...

Surveys that show activity remains buoyant in the euro area mean growth and inflation could be higher than forecast, thus complicating the ECB’s task.Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) for November, compiled by Markit, delivered upside surprises across most countries and sectors in the euro area.Business confidence remained very strong in Germany, and improved markedly in France and peripheral countries. The euro area composite PMI rose to 54.1, pointing to real quarter-over-quarter...