Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...
Read More »Cool Video: Bloomberg TV-Dollar Supercycle and Brexit
Summary: I reiterated my long-standing view that the euro is going to retest its record lows before the Obama Dollar Rally is over. I warn that the UK’s quest to regain sovereignty is an illusion. I announce that my new book will be published in early December or early January. I was on Bloomberg TV earlier today with Tom Keene, the one of a kind anchor, and Booth Business School Professor Luigi Zingales. ...
Read More »FX Daily, October 04: Sterling’s Slide Continues, but Greenback is Broadly Bid
Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...
Read More »FX Daily, September 29: Dollar Quietly Bid, while Market is Skeptical of OPEC Deal
Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0862, the downwards tendency since one day before the SNB monetary assessment meeting has continued. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen’s weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now...
Read More »FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly
Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee. While Draghi’s...
Read More »FX Daily, September 26: Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3
Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc remained nearly unchanged against the euro. It fell to 1.0875 during the day and recovered with the good U.S. new home sales data. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer. The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic,...
Read More »FX Daily, September 23: It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, September 23, 2016Click to enlarge. FX Rates As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged. If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged. Today has the making of the sixth consecutive Friday that the dollar gains against the euro...
Read More »FX Daily, September 22: Swiss Franc Strongest Currency Again
Swiss Franc Once again the Swiss Franc was the strongest. The EUR/CHF depreciated to 1.0875. As said yesterday, the reasons: the Fed and the strong Swiss trade balance. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed’s decision. There are few exceptions to this generalization. The Norwegian krone has gained nearly...
Read More »FX Daily, September 20: The Swiss Franc Continues To Rise.
Swiss Franc For us the developments in the trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not (more details here). The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued.And – as we see below – the franc appreciated. Switzerland Trade Balance(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, )Switzerland Trade Balance – click to enlarge. FX Rates...
Read More »FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Begins Important Week on Softer Note
[unable to retrieve full-text content]The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings. The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of the weekend, but investors continue to see a low probability of a Fed hike this week.
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