Das bedeutet aber nicht, dass in dieser Phase jede staatliche Massnahme unkritisch bejubelt zu werden braucht. Ganz im Gegenteil dazu erfordert das Zugestehen einer solchen Macht sogar noch mehr Transparenz und kritische Begutachtung als schon in gewöhnlichen Zeiten. Eliten, Politiker oder Bürokraten geben einen neu gewonnenen Einfluss ungern wieder ab. Den Römern ist es letztlich nicht gelungen, die für Notzeiten vorgesehene Machtkonzentration wie beabsichtigt wieder zu beenden. Besser...
Read More »Crouching Silver, Hidden Oil Market Report 20 Apr
The price of gold has been up steadily for the last 30 days (with a few zigs and zags), now re-attaining the high it achieved prior to the big drop in March. Gold ended the week at $1,662. Alas, it’s not quite the same story in silver, whose price drop was bigger. Now its price blip is smaller. Silver ended the week at $15.19. One does not need to look to the gold-silver ratio, which is currently off the charts, to see that the world has gone mad. Silver, it has long...
Read More »“On the Optimal ‘Lockdown’ during an Epidemic,” CovEc, 2020
Covid Economics, April 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF. We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently experienced by the...
Read More »“Corona und die Wirtschaft (Corona and the Economy),” Valor, 2020
Valor, 14 April 2020. PDF. Short interview on the implications of the Covid-19 shock for businesses, pensions, government finances, and asset markets. Longer online interview and video.
Read More »“On the Optimal ‘Lockdown’ during an Epidemic,” CEPR, 2020
CEPR Discussion Paper 14612, April 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF (local copy). We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as...
Read More »“On the Optimal ‘Lockdown’ during an Epidemic,” CEPR, 2020
CEPR Discussion Paper 14612, April 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF (local copy). We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as...
Read More »Medical Specialist Condemns Swiss Covid-19 Preparations and Response
In Die Mittelländische Zeitung, a Swiss doctor criticizes Switzerland’s preparations and response to Covid-19. He points to Lack of preparation by political decision makers Misleading communication by federal health officials Their apparent lack of awareness of academic work on the topic Arrogance in Switzerland and the West vis-à-vis China and other far eastern countries Sensationalist scare mongering in the media Calls for systematic infection of groups that are less at risk Informative...
Read More »Die ökonomische Antwort auf die Krise
Je länger sich der Lockdown hinzieht, umso grösser fallen die wirtschaftlichen Schäden aus. Könnten flächendeckende Tests die Lösung sein? Mehr Tests, weniger wirtschaftliche Schäden? Ein Corona-Drive-in-Testzentrum in Deutschland. Foto: Keystone Erinnern Sie sich an den «Weissen Hai»? Im Kinoklassiker aus den Siebzigern lauert die unbekannte Gefahr vor den Stränden von Amity Island. Der lokale Polizeichef verfügt ein Badeverbot, um Anwohner und Feriengäste zu...
Read More »Deaths Per Capita versus Confirmed Cases Per Capita
Data from April 6, 2020. Iceland and Luxembourg have many more confirmed cases per capita than other countries (either because they have more cases or better information). Mortality per confirmed case is highest in Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK. Source: Author’s calculations based on Johns Hopkins data and World Bank data.
Read More »Government urged to do more to help companies
On April 3, the Swiss government doubled its coronavirus emergency loan scheme to CHF40 billion after being flooded by requests for help by businesses. The Swiss government should scale up its efforts to help businesses overcome the coronavirus crisis, according to the director of the KOF Swiss Economic Instituteexternal link. Transport companies are also calling for more assistance. “If many companies are over-indebted after the crisis, they will not invest for...
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