Tag Archives: China

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today’s environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to remain focused on the long-term trends. Here’s what I’m thinking about lately: Let’s get the one everyone is...

Overview: The combination of the firmer than expected US CPI and larger than expected rise in initial and continuing jobless claims saw short-term US rates fall, and the odds of a quarter-point cut by the Fed rose from about 83% to about 93%. The Fed funds futures market boosted the odds of another quarter-point cut in December (~90% vs.78%). The dollar initially weakened but recovered, though the key levels held, such as $1.09 in the euro, $1.30 in sterling,...

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another large move. In fact,...

Overview: The US dollar is mixed but is mostly consolidating. The Australian dollar is a notable exception. The lack of new fiscal initiatives from China weighed on the Aussie, which is off for the fourth consecutive session. The other dollar-bloc currencies have also seen the recent losses extended. On the other hand, the Japanese yen and euro enjoy a firmer bias. After a dreadful drop in factory order, German industrial production surprised to the upside (2.9% vs....

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed on the last trading day of Q3 24. The Australian dollar, the G10 proxy for China, is leading the major currencies higher and reached its best level since February 2023 (~$0.6940). The yen and Swiss franc continue to trade heavily and are off 0.2%-0.25%. The euro firm and traded above $1.12 for the fifth time since late August but has failed to settle above there once. The soft inflation readings have boosted the chances of...

Overview: After its recent losses were extended, the dollar reversed higher in North America yesterday. Technically, this looks to have ended the sharp drop over the last couple of weeks, but there has been no follow-through gains today and a consolidative tone emerged. G10 currencies are firmer today, led by the recovery in the Antipodeans. The Swiss National Bank delivered the expected 25 bp rate cut, but the Swiss franc is up about 0.25%. Emerging market...

Overview: The US jobs report is front and center. The market is going into the report with about a 40% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is trading lower for the third consecutive session. Helped by the fifth consecutive decline in US 10-year yields, the yen approached last month's high but without the turmoil seen in July and August. Still, equity markets are under pressure. Most large markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. Taiwan...

Overview: The dollar is bid as the upside correction that began last week continues today. The greenback is trading above last week's highs against most of the G10 currencies. The yen is the notable exception. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated his intention to raise rates further provided the economy continues to perform as the central bank expects. The dollar has unwound yesterday's gains against the yen and is lower than last week's close (~JPY146.15)....

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer, though consolidating against most of the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the strongest, while the Scandis and Antipodean currencies are the heaviest. Among emerging market currencies, a handful of Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan are higher, but central European currencies, the South African rand, and the Mexican peso are softer.The news stream is light but the threat of the escalation of the...

Overview: The most recent data showed that Japanese investors took advantage of the yen's strength last week to buy foreign bonds and stocks. The US weekly jobs claims to their lowest level in four weeks, suggesting that the slowdown in the labor market remains gradual. The sky is not falling. There is no emergency. With a 28% drop in Japanese bank shares in the first three sessions of the month, stress in Japan was acute, but Japanese official actions seemed to...