Tag Archives: China

Overview:  Yesterday's poor 10-year note US Treasury auction helped turn the equity market lower and this carried over into Asia Pacific and European activity today. Today, Treasury completes its quarterly refunding with the sale of $25 bln 30-year bonds. The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. Japanese investors were buyers of foreign stocks on bonds last week, according to the latest portfolio flow report, which is not what one...

Overview:  The calls earlier this week for an emergency rate cut seemed to be a call for the Fed put, which, we argue is misunderstood. It is not about the stock market per se but financial stability, which did not seem threatened in the US. Japan is a different story, and the Bank of Japan offered a verbal put today, with an indication that it wants to maintain low (accommodative) rates. The markets reacted accordingly. The yen was sold (and dragged down the Swiss...

Overview: News that President Biden will not seek re-election has left investors unsure of the next step, but PredictIt.org still points to a Trump advantage of slightly better than 60-40. It is not clear yet whether Vice-President Harris will be challenged for the nomination. The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies, with the dollar bloc and Norway weaker. The yen is up around 0.45% to lead the others higher. The Swiss franc, euro and sterling are slightly...

Overview: The assassination attempt on former President Trump has injected a new dynamic as his chances of being re-elected appear to have risen. There are a few trades that seem to benefit from a second term:  steepening yield curve, weaker Mexican peso, and stronger crypto. The dollar initially strengthened as the market's initially responded, while Tokyo markets were closed for Marine Day. As North American activity is about to begin, the dollar is mostly little...

Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, but largely within the recent ranges, as the market appears to be waiting for tomorrow's US CPI. There are a few exceptions to note. The yen is trading near its recent lows. A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand has triggered a sell-off of the local dollar. Softer than expected Norwegian inflation has knocked the krone lower. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, with several Asia Pacific currencies bucking the...

Overview: The market feels a bit more at ease after the first round of the French elections that extreme policies will be avoided by an effort to deny the National Rally a legislative majority. French stocks have recouped some of their recent losses and the euro reached $1.0775, its best level since June 13. The yen remains soft after the Tankan survey showed little change but an uptick in capex plans. Outside of the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar is trading with a...

Overview: The dollar has caught a bid ahead of the US retail sales and industrial production figures. It is higher against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. The SNB meets Thursday. It surprised many by cutting rates in March and the same logic (low inflation, move ahead of the ECB, stronger franc) may apply now. A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia has not done much for the Australian dollar, which is little changed on the day. The greenback...

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most G10 currencies to start the new week. The euro is a notable exception. It is only slightly higher but confined to a narrow range around $1.07. On the other hand, most emerging market currencies are firmer, but for a few Asia-Pacific currencies, including those of China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Mexican peso is consolidating but it is also lower on the day. The tone is largely consolidative. Equities have begun...

Overview:  The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets re-opened from the holiday-long...

Overview:  With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to one-month lows...