Tag Archives: China growth

The government is ramping up spending and tax cuts to households to relieve pressure on the economy. Corporates may also benefit from fiscal measures.As the economy continues to decelerate, the Chinese government is ramping up fiscal policy, in order to offset downward pressure. Since June, the government’s fiscal spending has picked up significantly, although it remains fairly modest compared with previous years.In the first five months of the year, China’s fiscal policy was on the tight...

More policy support is expected, and may lead to slight rebound in Q4. China’s manufacturing PMIs softened further in September, indicating that growth momentum is likely continued to moderate in Q3 and that the weakness may extend into Q4. In response to the weakening growth momentum, especially in the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, the Chinese government has turned to policy easing since June. The...

More policy support is expected, and may lead to slight rebound in Q4.China’s manufacturing PMIs softened further in September, indicating that growth momentum is likely to continue to moderate in Q3 and that the weakness may extend into Q4.In response to the weakening growth momentum, especially in the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, the Chinese government has since June turned to policy easing. The latest PMI report shows that these policy adjustments may have started to...

The latest US levies on USD200bn of Chinese imports could leave some room for negotiation before the tariff rate is increased.The Trump administration has announced new tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese imports, initially at a rate of 10%, rising to 25% in January. This new wave of tariffs comes on top of the USD50 billion taxed over the summer at a rate of 25%. Trump has also threatened to impose levies on all remaining imports from China (worth an additional USD276 billion) if China...

October data suggests China continues to regain momentum, justifying our decision to raise our growth forecast for this year. But we still expect growth to slow in 2017.China’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) rose strongly in October. Both the official and the Caixin manufacturing PMIs came in at 51.2 , reaching their highest levels since August 2014. The official non-manufacturing PMIs also rose noticeable in October. The strong figures indicate that the improving growth momentum in China...

Chinese GDP slightly above expectations in Q2. We maintain our forecast of 6.5% growth this year. China’s GDP growth came in at 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2016, unchanged from Q1 and slightly better than expectations. A detailed breakdown of the GDP number released on 15 July is still unavailable, but we can gain a better understanding of the state of the Chinese economy by looking at some other indicators that have been published recently.First, household consumption is becoming ever more...