Tag Archives: China economy

The Chinese economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the first quarter as policy stimulus effects kick in. The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. The data generally surprised on the upside. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest...

The Chinese economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the first quarter as policy stimulus effects kick in.The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. The data generally surprised on the upside. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest data releases still surprised to the upside. In light of the strong Q1...

Chinese credit data surprised on the upside in March, following a surge in January and a sharp fall in February, but stimulus to the real economy may not be as strong.Chinese credit data surprised on the upside in March, following a surge in January and a sharp fall in February. Monthly total social financing (TSF) came in at Rmb2.86 trillion, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of Rmb1.85 trillion. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at Rmb1.69 trillion, compared with...

Industrial gauges rebound on seansonality as well as policy easing. Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0. Details of the PMI survey report...

Industrial gauges rebound on seasonality as well as policy easing.Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0. Details of the PMI survey report generally point to improvement in growth momentum, both on the domestic and...

The PBoC's policy easing is gaining traction but growth deceleration may continue in H1.China’s credit numbers for January surprised on the upside. The figures show strong credit creation in the first month of the year, especially in corporate bonds and bank bill financing. The contraction in the shadow banking sector has also moderated. This suggests that the PBoC’s monetary easing measures, which started in Q2 2018, are gaining traction.Although this is an encouraging development, we...

Further economic deceleration is expected ahead.The official Chinese manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs) came in at 49.4 in December, down from 50 in November and below the recent trough in early 2016. This brings PMI survey results below the crucial level of 50, entering contraction territory.The sharp deceleration was evident for both large enterprises and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with the latter showing more weakness. The official PMI figure for large...

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt. Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong...

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt.Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong performance.Growth in fixed asset investment rebounded strongly in October, to 8.1%...

The authorities are growing more tolerant of lower headline growth, which is already showing early signs of declining.The latest Chinese economic data for October indicate the moderate deceleration in growth already seen in Q3 is extending into Q4. Both exports and domestic demand have slowed, particularly in terms of fixed-asset investment. National fiscal spending has shown signs of slowing, and central government has cut off support for some regional infrastructure projects on concerns of...