Overview: The record-long yen slide has stalled just shy of JPY129.50, even though the Bank of Japan defended its Yield-Curve Control cap on the 10-year bond and will continue to do so for the next four sessions. The greenback fell to almost JPY128 before steadying. China again defied expectations for lower rates (loan prime rate), the yuan’s sell-off accelerated and slide to its lowest level since last October. Chinese and Hong Kong shares fell, but most of the...
Read More »Cautious Markets after China Disappoints
Overview: Ukraine’s Mariupol refuses to surrender as the war is turning more brutal according to reports. Iran-backed rebels in Yemen struck half of a dozen sites in Saudi Arabia, driving oil prices higher. China’s prime lending rates were unchanged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which rallied more than 4% last week, traded heavily today though China and Taiwan’s markets managed to post small gains. Tokyo was closed for the spring equinox. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is steady...
Read More »Weekly Market Pulse: Oil Shock
Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors – rising dollar and rising commodity prices – mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week. Rising oil prices, in particular, have been a regular feature of past...
Read More »Has the Market Carried the Fed’s Water? Is the Dollar Vulnerable to Buy the Rumor and Sell the Fact?
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a bit of heavier bias against most of the major currencies as the focus turns to today's FOMC meeting, where a clear consensus has emerged in favor of faster tapering and a dot plot pointing to a steeper pace rate hikes. Emerging market currencies led by Turkey and South Africa are mostly lower. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for the third straight session. The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat, near...
Read More »No Turnaround Tuesday for Equities?
Overview: Activity in the capital markets is subdued today, ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting conclusion and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell for the third consecutive session. European bourses are heavy after the Stoxx 600 posted an outside down day yesterday. Today would be the fifth consecutive decline. Selling pressure on the US futures indices continues after yesterday's losses. Australia and New Zealand bonds played...
Read More »Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC
Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note. Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher. The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low. The dollar is rising against all the major...
Read More »Consolidative Session as Markets Await Fresh Incentives
Overview: The markets lack a clear direction today and await fresh incentives. After gaining almost 1% yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped. Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia are among the few equity markets that rose. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is posting minor gains, while US futures are largely steady. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have a five-day advancing streak in tow. The US 10-year yield reached a five-month high near 1.64% yesterday and extended to...
Read More »FX Daily, October 11: Rate Expectation Adjustment Continues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0717 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities are softer and yields higher to start the new week. The dollar is mixed. Oil and industrial metals are higher. There are several developments over the weekend, but the focus seems to be on central bank action, inflation reports by the US and China, and the start of the Q3...
Read More »Ever Grand
Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions. It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped. Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande. Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment. The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...
Read More »Ever Grand
Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions. It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped. Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande. Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment. The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...
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