Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0648 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 5(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The 4.2% rally in the S&P 500 yesterday helped lift Asia Pacific markets earlier today, and the five basis point backing up of the US 10-year yield pushed regional yields higher. However, the coattails proved short, and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance...
Read More »FX Daily, March 4: Equities Trade Higher, While Yields Continue to Fall
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.49% to 1.0627 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The G7 delivered up a nothing burger than was shortly followed by a 50 bp Fed cut. The equity market seemed to enjoy it briefly and extended Monday’s dramatic gains, before falling out of bed. The S&P 500 lost about 2.2%, while the Dow Industrial slumped 3%, but shortly after the...
Read More »March Monthly
The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world’s stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March. First, will Covid-19 be contained for the most part by the end of Q1? China altered its methodology a couple of times, and many observers questioned the quality of the...
Read More »FX Daily, March 2: Central Banks’ Words of Assurance have Short Life
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.0632 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Comments beginning with Powell before the weekend, and BOJ and BOE earlier today promising support have saw equity markets briefly stabilize after last week’s dramatic moves. The G7 will hold a teleconference this week, but speculation of a coordinated rate move does not seem...
Read More »FX Daily, February 28: Fallout Accelerates
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.0606 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dramatic response by investors to Covid-19 continues unabated and worse. The slide is accelerating. The S&P 500 posted a 4.4% loss yesterday, its worst session since 2011, and the sell-off is continuing. Many markets in Asia Pacific, including Japan, China, Korea, Australia,...
Read More »FX Daily, February 27: The Rot Continues but Somewhat Less Dollar Friendly
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.20% to 1.0647 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A new phase of the Covid-19 is at hand. Yesterday was the first time that the number of new cases in the world surpassed the number of new cases China acknowledged. This confirms what we have known, namely that the battle for containing it in China has been lost. However, it...
Read More »FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0601 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its...
Read More »FX Daily, February 25: Capital Markets Remain Fragile after Yesterday’s Bloodletting
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% to 1.0592 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s bloodletting in global equities has calmed, but investors remain on edge. Despite all the concerns that the markets were under-appreciating the implications of the new coronavirus, there is a sense that yesterday’s moves were in excess. Japanese markets, which were...
Read More »FX Daily, February 24: Stocks Slammed and Yields Drop as Virus Containment Fails
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0588 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The ring of containment of Covid-19 has grown from China. The new frontline is Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. A lockdown of around 50k people near Milan and Austria blocking trains from Italy is scaring investors. Asian markets fell, but South Korea bore the brunt with a...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence
The US dollar’s surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets. Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no match for the greenback. The dollar appeared to have been rolling over in Q4 19, as the sentiment surveys in Europe improved, Japanese officials seemingly thought the economy could withstand a sales tax increase, and data suggested the Chinese economy was gaining some traction. However, 2020 has...
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