Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.56% to 1.1885 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90.  It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.1959 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar recovered from a softer tone in early Asia and is higher against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies as North American market prepare to start the new week. The news stream is light and investors remain on edge...

Say what one will, US President Trump is vigorously projecting what he believes are American interests. There is virtually no sign of the isolationism that many observers had anticipated. Indeed, as we have argued, the America First rejection of the League of Nations that Trump harkens back to was not isolationist as much as unilateralist. And the same is true of the Trump Administration. He is trying to get North Korea...

The US jobs report was broadly disappointing. However, the Federal Reserve will look through it and investors should too. A June hike is still by far the most likely scenario. The US created 164k net new jobs in April, and when coupled with the 32k upward revision in March, it was near expectations. The source of disappointment hourly earnings. March’s 2.7% year-over-year pace was revised to 2.6%, and there it remained...

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously. The monthly net job creation is a...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1944 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1944 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar’s dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but...

Most of the world’s financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar’s recovery.  The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.  No new catalyst has emerged.  The widening interest rate differential in the dollar’s favor over Germany, for example, is unprecedented.  Just like Fed officials can...

Swiss Franc The Euro stood unchanged at 1.1967 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint.  It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is...

A year ago, the Dutch and French elections signaled that UK referendum to leave the EU and the US election of Trump did not usher in a populist-nationalist epoch, such as the one that proceeded the last great financial crisis. The euro gapped higher and did not look back. We have contended that Macron’s victory, in particular, sparked a correction to the euro’s decline that began in mid-2014. Using technical tools, we...