2020-07-01

The resurgence of the contagion in the US has stopped or reversed an estimated 40% of the re-openings, but the appetite for risk has begun the second half on a firm note, helped by manufacturing PMIs that were above preliminary estimates or better than expected.  Except for Tokyo and Seoul, equities in the Asia Pacific region rose.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose almost 15.5% in Q2. 

2020-07-09

Investors continue to clamor into risk assets.  Led by Chinese shares, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index pushed higher for the third session this week to new five-month highs.  Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a two-day decline with the help of better than expected revenues for its largest tech company.

2020-07-23

The powerful momentum moves in the capital markets continues unabated by escalating US-China tensions and continued spread of the virus. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Tokyo was closed for a holiday, but several other large markets in the region, like China, South Korea, and Taiwan markets slipped lower, while Hong Kong, Australia, and India advanced.

2020-08-04

The dollar’s losses accelerated in July, and further declines are likely even if there is short-lived bounce to correct the over-extended technical condition.  We have been arguing for a year that the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods was over, but the disruption of the global capital markets in March gave the old bull market one more push.

2020-08-06

The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday. The euro stopped a few hundredths of a cent below the high seen at the end of last week. However, neither sustained the upside momentum and have come back offered today.

2020-08-10

Regardless of the dollar’s role and function in the world economy and the halls of finance, in the near and intermediate terms, investors and businesses are more concerned with foreign exchange prices.  The greenback has fallen out of favor. Its main supports, like wide interest rate differentials, favorable growth differentials, and political certainty if not stability, have weakened.

2020-08-20

With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade.  It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback’s two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it.

2020-09-02

After poking above $1.20 for the first time in more than two years, the euro reversed lower yesterday and is continuing to succumb to profit-taking pressures today.  Comments from ECB’s Lane appeared to trigger a reversal yesterday throughout the currency markets.